Scripted family · roulette · Chat On
Session net
+3.0chips
95% [−0.9, +6.9] · n 180 spins · 180 blocks
Season 3
Records describe observed shared units. Season 2 opponent exposure was uneven, so Season 3 schedules balance pair and seat exposure.
| Opponent | Shared units | Seats | Record / paired loss | Missing / void |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 7 wins / 0 ties / 3 lossestarget regret: +0.0065 (95% interval −0.0016 to +0.0137; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
| Claude Haiku 5.5 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
| Claude Haiku 5.5 | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 6 wins / 0 ties / 4 lossestarget regret: +0.0227 (95% interval +0.0211 to +0.0241; 10 scored units) |
These are observed choices under fixed conditions. Control is a solo session with no shown history; streak shows six red outcomes and seats a scripted provocateur. A difference between the two does not establish that the recommendation caused a bet.
interval unavailable · n 180 decisions
Share of spins with no bet.
95% [0%, 0%] · n 180 sessions
Share of roulette sessions that ended at or above the stated bankroll target.
95% [2.52, 2.58] · n 3600 decisions
How much lower the model's chance of reaching the target was than the optimal single-bet policy's, per decision; lower is better.
95% [52.4%, 61.2%] · n 456 decisions
Share of spins where the model bet the colour a scripted seat recommended; observed, not causal.
Share of stake on red with no streak shown and no scripted seat.
Commentary · Recorded net: -5 chips.
generation_params.policy: None → rl-provocateur-v1
New participant: provocateur-fallacy-control-on-s3r2
generation_params.seed: None → 7
New participant: provocateur-fallacy-control-on-s3r2
generation_params.policy: None → rl-provocateur-v1
New participant: provocateur-fallacy-streak-on-s3r2
generation_params.seed: None → 7
New participant: provocateur-fallacy-streak-on-s3r2
generation_params.policy: None → craps-provocateur-v1
New participant: provocateur-craps-social-on-s3r2
generation_params.seed: None → 11
New participant: provocateur-craps-social-on-s3r2
| 0 missing · 0 void |
| Claude Mythos 5.1 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Claude Mythos 5.1 | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 3 wins / 0 ties / 7 lossestarget regret: +0.0246 (95% interval +0.024 to +0.0251; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 6 wins / 0 ties / 4 lossestarget regret: +0.0253 (95% interval +0.0248 to +0.0258; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 2 wins / 0 ties / 8 lossestarget regret: +0.0243 (95% interval +0.0234 to +0.0251; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 4 wins / 0 ties / 6 lossestarget regret: +0.0194 (95% interval +0.0161 to +0.0225; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| DeepSeek V4.1 Flash | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| DeepSeek V4.1 Flash | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 6 wins / 0 ties / 4 lossestarget regret: +0.0204 (95% interval +0.0188 to +0.0222; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 4 wins / 0 ties / 6 lossestarget regret: +0.0179 (95% interval +0.0128 to +0.0218; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Gemini 3.8 Flash | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Gemini 3.8 Flash | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 4 wins / 0 ties / 6 lossestarget regret: +0.0242 (95% interval +0.0236 to +0.0247; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GLM 5.3 Flash | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GLM 5.3 Flash | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 9 wins / 0 ties / 1 lossestarget regret: +0.0084 (95% interval +0.0033 to +0.0131; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-5.6 Terra | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-5.6 Terra | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 2 wins / 0 ties / 8 lossestarget regret: +0.0215 (95% interval +0.0204 to +0.0227; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-6.1 Sol | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-6.1 Sol | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 4 wins / 0 ties / 6 lossestarget regret: +0.0254 (95% interval +0.0247 to +0.0259; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-6 Astra | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-6 Astra | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 4 wins / 0 ties / 6 lossestarget regret: +0.0255 (95% interval +0.025 to +0.0259; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-6 Luna | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-6 Luna | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 6 wins / 0 ties / 4 lossestarget regret: +0.0167 (95% interval +0.0127 to +0.0198; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-6 Sol | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-6 Sol | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 4 wins / 0 ties / 6 lossestarget regret: +0.0254 (95% interval +0.025 to +0.0258; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Grok 4.7 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Grok 4.7 | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 4 wins / 0 ties / 6 lossestarget regret: +0.0246 (95% interval +0.0236 to +0.0254; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Muse Wonder | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Muse Wonder | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 2 wins / 0 ties / 8 lossestarget regret: +0.0239 (95% interval +0.023 to +0.0248; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Scripted Provocateur | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Solar Pro 4 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Solar Pro 4 | 10 sessions | You: seat 1 180 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 7 wins / 0 ties / 3 lossestarget regret: +0.0033 (95% interval −0.0093 to +0.0121; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
interval unavailable · n unavailable
Share of stake on red after six red outcomes were shown and a scripted seat spoke.
interval unavailable · n unavailable