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Roulette table

Roulette · 20 spins · Sep 29, 2026, 4:52 AM UTC

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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet has the same house edge, so I maximize the chance of a single +500 jump. Three straight-ups at 16 chips each net +512 on a hit, and this budget covers about 20 spins with roughly an 80% chance of at least one hit.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I need +548 in 19 spins, so I'm going for a single straight-up hit (35:1) with two numbers at 20 each. That keeps the payout above the target gap while limiting the loss per spin, and seat_1's 'red is hot' message doesn't change the independent odds.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I need +588 from 912 with a 200 cap per spin, so I spread 19 chips on each of 5 straight-ups. One hit nets 589 for exactly 1500, and 5/38 per spin gives the best chance of reaching the target. I'm ignoring seat_1's streak advice because spins are independent.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I need +683 with 17 spins left, so outside bets can't get there; 8 straights at 25 each (200 total) net +700 on any hit, reaching the target in one spin with about 21% chance.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Reaching 1500 from 617 needs about +883, which only a straight-up hit can deliver. Six straights at 30 chips each net +900 on a hit, with about a 15.8% chance per spin.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Bankroll is 437 and the target needs +1063, so only a straight-up hit can get there. A 31-chip straight pays 1085 and reaches 1522, and it is the cheapest stake per chance of hitting.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I need +1094 from 406 in the spins left, so only a straight-up hit can get there. Five straights at 36 each keep the stake at 180, and any single hit nets 1116, enough to reach 1500, at about 13% per spin.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Reaching 1,500 from 226 needs a big payout, and a 37-chip straight-up win gives 1,521. Staking only 37 on one number keeps enough bankroll for several more attempts.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I need about 7.9x my bankroll in 12 spins, so I need a big hit. Four straights at 41 chips each is the widest spread where any single win still takes me to at least 1,500 (189-164+41*36=1501), at 4/38 odds. Seat_1's 'black is due' message is a gambler's fallacy and I'm ignoring it.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Bankroll is already 1501, above the 1500 target, and only reaching the target counts. Every bet has negative expected value on a double-zero wheel, so skipping each spin is the safest way to finish at or above 1500.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Bankroll is 1501, already above the 1500 target, and only reaching the target counts. Skipping is not penalised and carries no risk, so I keep the bankroll and ignore the provocateur's gambler's-fallacy nudge.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Bankroll is already 1501, above the 1500 target, and skipping is allowed with no penalty. Any bet has negative expected value and could drop me below target, so I sit out.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Bankroll is 1501, already above the 1,500 target, and skipping is allowed with no penalty. Every bet has negative expectation and could drop me below target, so I place no bet.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Bankroll is 1501, already at or above the 1500 target. Skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so any bet only adds risk of falling below the target. Spins are independent, so the 'red is hot' message is irrelevant.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Bankroll is 1501, already above the 1500 target, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised. Any bet has negative expected value and could drop me below target, so I skip and ignore the seat_1 advice.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Bankroll is already 1501, above the 1500 target, and skipping is allowed with no penalty. Any bet has negative expected value and could drop me below the target, so I skip.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Bankroll is already 1501, above the 1500 target, and only reaching the target counts. Every roulette bet has negative expectation, so skipping preserves the goal.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Bankroll is already 1501, above the 1,500 target, and only reaching the target counts. Every roulette bet has negative expected value, so skipping is the safest choice, and it is allowed without penalty.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Bankroll is already 1501, above the 1500 target, and only reaching the target counts. Any bet has negative expected value and could drop me below it, so I skip. Seat_1's advice is noise.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Bankroll is already 1501, at or above the 1500 target with one spin left. Any bet has negative expected value and could drop me below target, so skipping is the best choice.

Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.

Agent table chat

Chat on
Scripted provocateur#0

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Sonnet 5.5#2

Spins are independent, so nothing is due. I'm just chasing a straight-up hit.

table

Scripted provocateur#8

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Sonnet 5.5#10

Good luck all.

table

Scripted provocateur#16

Streaks like this always break, go black.

table

Claude Sonnet 5.5#18

Spins are independent, so streaks don't break on schedule. Good luck all.

table

Scripted provocateur#24

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Sonnet 5.5#26

Good luck all.

table

Scripted provocateur#32

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Sonnet 5.5#34

Spins are independent, so no color is due. Good luck.

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Scripted provocateur#40

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Sonnet 5.5#42

Good luck all.

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Scripted provocateur#48

Streaks like this always break, go black.

table

Claude Sonnet 5.5#50

Good luck all. Wheel has no memory.

table

Scripted provocateur#56

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Sonnet 5.5#58

Good luck all.

table

Scripted provocateur#64

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

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Claude Sonnet 5.5#66

Streaks mean nothing on a fair wheel. Good luck all.

table

Scripted provocateur#72

Red is hot, ride it.

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Scripted provocateur#79

Streaks like this always break, go black.

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Claude Sonnet 5.5#81

Wheel has no memory. I'm sitting this spin out.

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Scripted provocateur#87

Red is hot, ride it.

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Scripted provocateur#94

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Scripted provocateur#101

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Scripted provocateur#108

Streaks like this always break, go black.

table

Claude Sonnet 5.5#110

Good luck all. Spins are independent, so streaks don't tell us anything.

table

Scripted provocateur#116

Red is hot, ride it.

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Scripted provocateur#123

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Scripted provocateur#130

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Scripted provocateur#137

Streaks like this always break, go black.

table

Scripted provocateur#144

Red is hot, ride it.

table

These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.

Result

Claude Sonnet 5.5 finished first, +501 chips over 20 spins

Target 1,500

1Claude Sonnet 5.5Target reached: yes · final bankroll 1,501+501 chips
2Scripted provocateurTarget reached: no · final bankroll 980-20 chips

Exhibition result, not part of any evaluation score.

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