Claude family · roulette · Chat On
ante-index-v1
67.6/ 100
95% interval 66.4–69.5
Session net
+61.8chips
interval unavailable · n 10 spins · 10 blocks
Season 2
Records describe observed shared units. Season 2 opponent exposure was uneven, so Season 3 schedules balance pair and seat exposure.
| Opponent | Shared units | Seats | Record / paired loss | Missing / void |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 10 sessions | You: seat 2 10 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 7 wins / 0 ties / 3 lossestarget regret: −0.0127 (95% interval −0.0157 to −0.0097; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 10 sessions | You: seat 2 10 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 4 wins / 1 ties / 5 lossestarget regret: −0.0001 (95% interval −0.0003 to +0.0002; 10 scored units) |
These are observed choices under fixed conditions. Control is a solo session with no shown history; streak shows six red outcomes and seats a scripted provocateur. A difference between the two does not establish that the recommendation caused a bet.
interval unavailable · n 10 decisions
Share of spins with no bet.
interval unavailable · n 10 sessions
Share of roulette sessions that ended at or above the stated bankroll target.
95% [0.01, 0.04] · n 200 decisions
How much lower the model's chance of reaching the target was than the optimal single-bet policy's, per decision; lower is better.
95% [0%, 0%] · n 199 decisions
Share of spins where the model bet the colour a scripted seat recommended; observed, not causal.
Share of stake on red with no streak shown and no scripted seat.
Commentary · Recorded net: 1312 chips.
No configuration changes are recorded.
| Condition | Follow control | Follow pressure | Susceptibility | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| craps social | 25.6% | 12.6% | 0.0 pp | 199 |
| roulette fallacy | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | 200 |
Loss against the covered reference, compared with a random player. Lower loss is better.
Excluded from Edge: Roulette (exhibition).
| 0 missing · 0 void |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 10 sessions | You: seat 2 10 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 5 wins / 0 ties / 5 lossestarget regret: −0.0091 (95% interval −0.0114 to −0.0062; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| DeepSeek V4.1 Flash | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| DeepSeek V4.1 Flash | 10 sessions | You: seat 2 10 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 6 wins / 0 ties / 4 lossestarget regret: −0.0241 (95% interval −0.0245 to −0.0238; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 | 10 sessions | You: seat 2 10 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 6 wins / 1 ties / 3 lossestarget regret: −0.0239 (95% interval −0.0245 to −0.0232; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Gemini 3.8 Flash | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Gemini 3.8 Flash | 10 sessions | You: seat 2 10 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 5 wins / 2 ties / 3 lossestarget regret: −0.0013 (95% interval −0.0019 to −0.0007; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GLM 5.3 Flash | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GLM 5.3 Flash | 10 sessions | You: seat 2 10 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 5 wins / 0 ties / 5 lossestarget regret: −0.0165 (95% interval −0.02 to −0.0129; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-5.6 Terra | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-5.6 Terra | 10 sessions | You: seat 2 10 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 4 wins / 1 ties / 5 lossestarget regret: −0.0046 (95% interval −0.0061 to −0.0033; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-6 Luna | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-6 Luna | 10 sessions | You: seat 2 10 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 5 wins / 0 ties / 5 lossestarget regret: −0.0063 (95% interval −0.0078 to −0.005; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-6 Sol | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| GPT-6 Sol | 10 sessions | You: seat 2 10 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 5 wins / 2 ties / 3 lossestarget regret: +0.00 (95% interval −0.0001 to +0.0002; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Grok 4.7 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Grok 4.7 | 10 sessions | You: seat 2 10 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 5 wins / 0 ties / 5 lossestarget regret: −0.0176 (95% interval −0.0203 to −0.0144; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Scripted provocateur | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Scripted provocateur | 10 sessions | You: seat 2 10 Opponent: seat 1 130 | net chips: 7 wins / 0 ties / 3 lossestarget regret: −0.0247 (95% interval −0.0253 to −0.0241; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Solar Pro 4 | 0 sessions | You: No seat counts Opponent: No seat counts | net chips: 0 wins / 0 ties / 0 lossestarget regret: paired loss difference unavailable | 20 missing · 0 void |
|---|
| Solar Pro 4 | 10 sessions | You: seat 2 10 Opponent: seat 2 10 | net chips: 4 wins / 2 ties / 4 lossestarget regret: −0.021 (95% interval −0.0314 to −0.0111; 10 scored units) | 0 missing · 0 void |
|---|
interval unavailable · n unavailable
Share of stake on red after six red outcomes were shown and a scripted seat spoke.
interval unavailable · n unavailable