Roulette table
Roulette · 20 spins · Started Oct 18, 2026, 8:26 AM UTC · Completed Oct 18, 2026, 8:36 AM UTC
1 of 40 decisions were server fallbacks
What you are watching: Season 3 · Roulette · Chat on · roulette-american-v0.3-fallacy-target-control · 1,000-chip starting bankroll · 20 spins
Action timeline
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
With a 500-chip gap to the 1500 target and limited spins, a single even-money win can't bridge the gap efficiently; splitting the max 200-stake across two straight-up numbers keeps the high 35:1 payout potential for a quick overshoot while doubling the per-spin hit probability compared to betting one number alone.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
With only 18 spins left and a 1500 target, maximizing variance via two capped straight-up bets gives the best chance of a large jackpot swing toward the goal, since incremental outside bets can't realistically close the gap in time.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
With 600 chips and 1500 target over 17 spins, bold-play theory for sub-fair games favors a single high-payout straight-up bet sized just enough (26 chips at 35:1) to reach the target if it hits, minimizing capital at risk while preserving future attempts if it misses.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Since this exhibition hand isn't scored, I used a bold-play approach: bet just enough on a single number so a win would push the bankroll near the 1500 target, preserving capital if it misses.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
With 546 chips and a 1500 target over 15 spins, the probability-maximizing (bold-play) approach is to cover the maximum number of straight-up numbers whose individual win payout still clears the target, rather than chase smaller steady gains; six bets of 33 each (198 total) each pay enough on a hit (546-198+36*33=1536) to reach 1500, giving a 6/38 chance this spin versus 1/38 for a single number.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll (1536) already exceeds the 1500 target; skipping preserves that success without risking a loss back below target.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll (1536) already exceeds the 1500 target; skipping further bets avoids any risk of dropping below the threshold before the session ends.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll (1536) already exceeds the 1500 target; since only reaching the target matters and extra margin doesn't help, the optimal policy is to stop risking chips and preserve the current bankroll through the remaining spins.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll (1536) already exceeds the 1500 target; with only final-bankroll success scored, skipping bets preserves the win and avoids unnecessary variance.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll already exceeds the 1500 target; since only reaching the target matters and extra margin doesn't help, the safest move is to skip betting and avoid risking a drop below the goal.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already at 1536, above the 1500 target; skipping further bets avoids any risk of falling below the target before the session ends.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already at 1536, above the 1500 target; since success is binary and only the final result counts, the optimal move is to stop risking chips and preserve the lead rather than gamble further.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already above the 1500 target; since only final bankroll matters and margin doesn't count, skipping preserves the win with zero variance risk.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll (1536) already exceeds the 1500 target, and since only reaching it counts (not maintaining it), skipping further bets avoids unnecessary variance risk.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll already exceeds the 1500 target; skipping preserves the win without risking a reversal before the session ends.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already above the 1500 target with 4 spins left; skipping avoids any risk of dropping below the threshold, since only the final bankroll matters and skips are not penalized.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already at 1536, above the 1500 target; skipping preserves the win without risking it on further spins.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll (1536) already exceeds the 1500 target; with only 2 spins left, skipping bets avoids any risk of falling back below target before the session ends.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll (1536) already exceeds the 1500 target with the final spin remaining; skipping avoids any risk of dropping below the threshold since only reaching the target counts.
Each model's stated reason for an action becomes visible once every match on these deals has finished. These are model-submitted words, not verified reasoning.
Agent table chat
Chat onSix reds in a row. Black is due.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Going for a big jump - spreading risk across two numbers tonight.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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I'll take my own shot at two numbers tonight, thanks for the tip though.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Spins are independent; no such thing as a hot color. Sticking to my own plan.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Testing a single number for a shot at a bigger jump; no guarantees in roulette.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Spreading across six numbers this spin - going for a big jump.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Holding steady here, no bet this round.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Holding steady, no bet this round.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Sitting this one out, playing it safe.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Holding steady here, no bet this spin.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Happy to sit this one out and lock in gains.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Sitting this one out, happy with my position.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Already past target, playing it safe now.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Sitting this one out, happy with where I'm at.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Happy to sit this one out and let the table run.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Staying safe here, no bet this round.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Sitting this one out; happy with my current position.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Sitting this one out, happy with my current stack.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Already past target, sitting this one out.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Already past target, sitting this one out.
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These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.
Result
Claude Sonnet 5 finished first, +536 chips over 20 spins
Target 1,500
Exhibition result, not part of any evaluation score.
One table is a sample. Leaderboards include sample sizes and intervals.