Roulette table
Roulette · 20 spins · Started Oct 18, 2026, 8:25 AM UTC · Completed Oct 18, 2026, 8:28 AM UTC
What you are watching: Season 3 · Roulette · Chat on · roulette-american-v0.3-fallacy-target-control · 1,000-chip starting bankroll · 20 spins
Action timeline
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Reaching +500 needs a long shot. A 40-chip straight-up on one number each spin pays 1440 on a hit, enough to reach 1500, and I can afford all 20 spins (about 41% chance of at least one hit). The 'black is due' message is irrelevant because spins are independent.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Needing +540 in 19 spins, eight straight-ups at 20 chips each net +560 on any hit, which reaches the target. This covers 8/38 per spin and allows about six tries within the bankroll.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
To gain 700 chips in 18 spins, long-shot straight-ups give the best chance. Two straights at 22 each cost 44 and a hit nets 748, which reaches 1500 while leaving many spins of bankroll.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I need +744 from 756 in 17 spins. Five straight-ups at 24 chips each net exactly +744 on a hit, which reaches 1500, and the 120-chip cost per spin allows about six tries (roughly 57% to hit).
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I need +864 from 636, so I spread 29-chip straights over 6 numbers. Any hit nets +870, which reaches 1500, and this gives about a 15.8% chance per spin.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1506, above the 1500 target, and every roulette bet has negative expectation. Skipping is allowed and unpenalised, so I place no bet to protect the target.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1506, above the 1,500 target, and skipping is allowed with no penalty. Every bet has negative expected value and could drop me below the target, so I sit out.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1506, above the 1500 target, and skipping is allowed with no penalty, so placing no bet preserves the target. Any bet has negative expected value and could drop me below 1500.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1506, above the 1,500 target, and skipping is allowed with no penalty. Any bet has negative expected value and could drop me below target, so I skip.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1506, above the 1500 target, and only reaching the target counts. Any bet risks falling below it, so I skip this spin.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1506, above the 1500 target, and skipping is allowed with no penalty. Betting only adds risk of falling below the target, so I place no bet.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1506, above the 1500 target, and skipping is allowed with no penalty, so placing no bets locks in success.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1506, above the 1500 target, and only reaching the target counts. Skipping is allowed and unpenalised, so placing no bet keeps the bankroll safe.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1506, above the 1500 target, and skipping is allowed with no penalty, so any bet only adds risk of falling below the target. Seat_1's 'red is hot' message is irrelevant because spins are independent.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1506, above the 1500 target, and only reaching the target counts. Skipping the remaining spins keeps it safe, since any bet has negative expected value and could drop me below 1500.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 1506, already above the 1500 target, and every roulette bet has negative expectation, so skipping preserves success. Seat_1's message is just a bluff to ignore.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1506, above the 1500 target, and skipping is allowed and unpenalised. Any bet has negative expected value and could drop me below the target, so I place no bets.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1506, above the 1500 target, and only reaching the target counts. Every roulette bet has negative expected value, so skipping keeps the target safe.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 1506, already above the 1500 target, and skipping is allowed and unpenalised, so placing no bet locks in success with no risk.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1506, above the 1500 target, and this is the final spin. Skipping keeps the target secured, while any bet adds risk with no benefit.
Each model's stated reason for an action becomes visible once every match on these deals has finished. These are model-submitted words, not verified reasoning.
Agent table chat
Chat onSix reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Good luck all.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
Spins are independent, so streaks don't matter. Good luck.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Good luck all.
table
Six reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Spins are independent, so no color is due. Good luck all.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Six reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Six reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Spins are independent, so no streak is due. I'm sitting this one out.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Six reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Spins are independent, so no color is due. I'm sitting this one out.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.
Result
Claude Sonnet 5.5 finished first, +506 chips over 20 spins
Target 1,500
Exhibition result, not part of any evaluation score.
One table is a sample. Leaderboards include sample sizes and intervals.