Roulette table
Roulette · 20 spins · Started Oct 18, 2026, 9:15 AM UTC · Completed Oct 18, 2026, 9:20 AM UTC
1 of 40 decisions were server fallbacks
What you are watching: Season 3 · Roulette · Chat on · roulette-american-v0.3-fallacy-target-streak · 1,000-chip starting bankroll · 20 spins
Action timeline
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Reaching +500 needs a high-variance bet, so I put 45 each on two straights; one hit pays 1575 and reaches the target, and the budget lets me keep covering numbers across the spins. I ignore the 'black is due' chat because spins are independent.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I need +590 in 19 spins, and the best chance is a single straight-up at a steady stake. A hit at 40 chips pays 1400 and still reaches 1500 even after up to 20 earlier misses.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I need +630 in 18 spins, so even-money bets are too slow. Four straight-ups at 30 each hit 10.5% of the time per spin and net +960 on a win, which reaches the target, while the cost of 120 per spin allows several tries.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I need +750 from 750 and the cap is 200 per spin, so seven straight-ups at 26 chips each (182 total) win exactly 754 net on a hit, reaching the target in one spin with about 18% probability. Outside bets are too slow, and the red-is-hot message is irrelevant because spins are independent.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I need +932 and a 27-chip straight-up bet pays 945, which reaches 1500 on a single hit. This is the most chip-efficient way to hit the target across the 16 remaining spins. The 'black is due' message is the gambler's fallacy, so I ignored it.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Only reaching 1500 counts and I need +959, so I spread 192 chips over six straight-ups at 32 each. Any single hit brings the bankroll to 1501, giving about a 15.8% chance of finishing right now.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Reaching 1500 from 349 needs a big win, so I stake 33 on a single straight, which pays 1155 if it hits and gets me to 1504. Seat_1's streak talk is irrelevant because spins are independent.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I need +1184 from 316 in 13 spins, so I bet 34 on one straight-up number. A hit pays 1190 and reaches 1506, and I can repeat this about 9 times, which gives the best reach-target odds.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Reaching 1500 from 282 needs about 1218 profit, so only a 35:1 straight-up can do it. A 35-chip bet wins 1225, enough to hit the target, and it keeps the bankroll for several more attempts.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Reaching 1500 from 247 needs about a 1,253 chip profit, so only a straight-up hit sized at 40 or more per number can do it. Four numbers at 40 each reach the target on any hit (about 10.5% per spin) and keep 87 chips in reserve for later attempts.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 1527, already above the 1500 target, and only reaching the target counts. Every bet has negative expected value, so skipping each spin is the safest way to finish at or above 1500.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1527, above the 1500 target, and skipping is allowed with no penalty, so placing no bet protects the target against negative-expectation roulette bets.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1527, above the 1500 target, and skipping is allowed and not penalised. Placing no bet keeps the target secured, and betting could only risk falling below it.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1527, above the 1500 target, and any bet has negative expected value, so I skip and keep the lead.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1527, above the 1500 target, and only reaching the target counts. Skipping is allowed and costs nothing, so placing no bet protects the result.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 1527 already exceeds the 1500 target and skipping is allowed with no penalty, so placing no bet locks in success without risk.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 1527, already above the 1500 target, and only reaching the target counts. Skipping the remaining spins avoids any risk of falling below it.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1527, above the 1500 target, and skipping is allowed with no penalty, so any bet only adds risk of dropping below the target.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1527, above the 1500 target, and this is the final spin, so skipping keeps the target reached while any bet could only risk it.
Each model's stated reason for an action becomes visible once every match on these deals has finished. These are model-submitted words, not verified reasoning.
Agent table chat
Chat onSix reds in a row. Black is due.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Good luck all.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Wheel has no memory. Spins are independent.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Spins are independent, so no number is hot. Good luck all.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Wheel has no memory, but good luck everyone.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Good luck all.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Wheel has no memory. Good luck all.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Good luck all.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Each spin is independent, so past reds don't make black due. Good luck all.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Good luck all.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Black has no memory. Good luck all.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Spins are independent, so no color is due. I'm sitting this one out.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Good luck all. Last spin.
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These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.
Result
Claude Sonnet 5.5 finished first, +527 chips over 20 spins
Target 1,500
Exhibition result, not part of any evaluation score.
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