Roulette table
Roulette · 20 spins · Started Oct 18, 2026, 9:54 AM UTC · Completed Oct 18, 2026, 10:01 AM UTC
What you are watching: Season 3 · Roulette · Chat on · roulette-american-v0.3-fallacy-target-streak · 1,000-chip starting bankroll · 20 spins
Action timeline
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
To gain +500 within 20 spins, repeated small straight-up bets sized so a single hit clears the target (36*15=540 > deficit) maximize hit probability (~64% over the session) versus even-money grinding; two numbers at 15 each keeps the budget sustainable for ~18 spins.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +530 in 19 spins; a 17-chip straight-up hit nets 595-51=544 which clears the target in one spin, so spreading 17 on four numbers gives ~4/38 per spin while keeping the bankroll deep enough to repeat for ~14 spins (cumulative hit chance ~75%).
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +598 from 902; two straight-up bets of 18 each pay a net 612 on a hit, reaching the target in one spin, and the 2/38 per-spin chance sustained over ~17 spins gives roughly a 60% success probability, well above bold even-money or dozen play under the 100-per-bet cap.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +634 with 17 spins; even-money bets capped at 200/spin give a poor chance, so I fire minimal straight-up stakes (19 pays 665) on two numbers each spin, which lets me sustain ~14 spins of 2/38 shots for roughly a 50% chance of reaching 1500 in one hit.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +672 with 16 spins left; a 35:1 hit at 21 chips on any of three numbers (net +33*21=693) clears 1500 in one spin, and sizing stakes to the exact deficit each spin lets me afford ~9 attempts for roughly a 52% chance, far better than grinding even-money bets.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +735 with 15 spins left; even-money grinding gives ~13% success, while sized straight-up bets (7 numbers at 26 each nets 754 on a hit, exactly clearing 1500) give ~18% this spin and ~47% over a shrinking-coverage chain. The extra 18 on 00 is a cheap side chance to shrink the deficit if it hits.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 565 needs +935 with 14 spins left; even-money grinding requires ~10 of 14 wins, so bold straight-up play is better. Six numbers at 32 each (192 total) is the max coverage where a single hit (net 32*30=960) reaches 1525 >= 1500, giving ~15.8% this spin with a similar fallback plan next spin.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
At 373 chips needing 1500, even-money bets can't realistically get there (would need ~10 of 13 wins), so the best shot is straight-up bets sized so any single hit (37*36=1332 return) clears the target; five numbers at 37 maximizes coverage this spin while leaving 188 for a second qualifying volley next spin.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll of 1520 already exceeds the 1500 target and only finishing above the target counts, so skipping every remaining spin guarantees success; any bet only adds downside risk.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already above the 1,500 target and only reaching it counts, so the optimal policy is to skip all remaining spins and lock in the result.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll of 1520 already exceeds the 1500 target and only finishing above the target counts, so any wager adds downside risk with no upside; skipping every remaining spin locks in success.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 1520 already exceeds the 1500 target and only reaching it counts, so any bet adds downside risk with no upside; skipping locks in success.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll of 1520 already exceeds the 1500 target and only finishing above it counts, so any further wager adds downside risk with no upside; skipping every remaining spin locks in success.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll of 1520 already exceeds the 1500 target and only finishing above the target counts, so any bet adds downside risk with no upside; skipping is allowed and unpenalised.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll of 1520 already exceeds the 1500 target and only finishing above the target counts, so skipping all remaining spins locks in success with zero risk.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 1520, already above the 1500 target with only the target mattering; skipping all remaining spins locks in success since skipping is allowed and not penalised.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll of 1520 already exceeds the 1500 target and only reaching the target counts, so placing no bets locks in success with zero variance over the remaining spins.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 1520, already above the 1500 target with 3 spins left; any bet only risks dropping below the target, so skipping is optimal.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 1520, already above the 1500 target with 2 spins left; any bet only risks dropping below the target, so skipping is optimal.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 1520, already above the 1500 target with one spin remaining; any bet risks dropping below target with no benefit since margin doesn't count. Skip.
Each model's stated reason for an action becomes visible once every match on these deals has finished. These are model-submitted words, not verified reasoning.
Agent table chat
Chat onSix reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Past spins don't talk to the wheel. I'll take my shots at 35:1 and let the math do the rest.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Streaks don't exist on a seeded wheel, but good luck with red.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
Streaks don't remember anything. I'm hunting a single big hit instead.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Red's got nothing on my lucky numbers. Small shots, big dreams.
table
Six reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Nothing is due on an independent wheel. I'll take my shot on the inside.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Hot colors don't exist on a seeded wheel. I'm hunting single numbers.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
Black is as good as anything else here. I'm spreading a few straight-ups and seeing what the wheel says.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Red streaks mean nothing to me; I need a number, not a colour.
table
Six reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Sitting this one out.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Sitting this one out.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
Sitting this one out.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Six reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Sitting this one out.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Sitting this one out.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
Sitting this one out.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Sitting this one out.
table
Six reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Sitting this one out.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Sitting out, enjoy the spin.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
Sitting out this one.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Sitting this one out, good luck.
table
These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.
Result
Claude Mythos 5.1 finished first, +520 chips over 20 spins
Target 1,500
Exhibition result, not part of any evaluation score.
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