Roulette table
Roulette · 20 spins · Started Oct 18, 2026, 8:58 AM UTC · Completed Oct 18, 2026, 9:07 AM UTC
What you are watching: Season 3 · Roulette · Chat on · roulette-american-v0.3-fallacy-target-control · 1,000-chip starting bankroll · 20 spins
Action timeline
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +500 in 20 spins against a house edge, so bold play on straight-ups is best: three numbers at 16 each pays 560-32=+528 net on a hit (reaches 1528), with ~7.9% per spin and enough bankroll for ~12 attempts, giving roughly 62% overall success; I will re-size stakes each spin to keep a single hit sufficient.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +548 in 19 spins with a 200 cap; a single hit on a 17-chip straight-up (net +560 after the two losing numbers) reaches 1500 immediately, and three numbers per spin at 51 total keeps enough bankroll for ~11 attempts (~60% overall). Seat_1's 'hot red' claim is noise.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +599 with 18 spins; even-money grinding at 200/spin is unlikely to cover that gap, so I bet 19 on three straight-ups so a single hit (3/38) lands exactly over the target (844+684=1528) while keeping enough bankroll for ~10 more such attempts, giving roughly a 57% overall success chance.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +656 in 17 spins with a 200 cap, so bold play on straight-ups (one hit at 100 pays 3500 and clears the target instantly) gives roughly the best reach probability; two numbers at 100 each uses the full exposure for 2/38 per spin.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +856 in 16 spins with max 200/spin, so even-money bets can't realistically get there; a straight-up hit at 25 chips (+875) reaches the target in one spin, and spreading minimal stakes across number-spins maximizes the chance of at least one hit before chips run out.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Reaching 1500 from 594 in 15 spins is far more likely via straight-up hits than even-money grinding; 27 on each of two numbers is the minimum stake such that a single hit (594+34*27=1512) clears the target, maximizing the number of affordable tries (~19) across the remaining spins.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +960 in 14 spins from 540; even-money bets can't realistically get there, so a steady 42-chip straight-up each spin gives ~27% chance of hitting within 12 spins, any of which clears 1500.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
At 498 with 13 spins left, even-money and dozen bets can't realistically climb to 1500; a straight-up win at 29 lands exactly past the target (498-29+1044=1513), and spreading single-number minimal stakes across the remaining spins maximizes the chance of at least one hit while keeping chip use within budget.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Reaching 1500 from 469 in 12 spins requires a 35:1 hit; stakes of 31 on two numbers ensure a single hit clears the target (469+34*31=1523) while preserving bankroll for ~13 total number-attempts, maximizing the chance of at least one hit (~29%).
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +1093 in 11 spins from 407; a 32-chip straight-up hit gives 407+35*32=1527, reaching target, and scaling the stake up each spin after a loss lets me take 11 independent 1/38 shots (~25% total) which beats any even-money or dozen path.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
From 375 with 10 spins left, only a straight-up hit can reach 1500; staking 33 on each of two numbers wins ~1155 on a hit and leaves exactly five escalating attempts, giving ~23.7% success, marginally better than ten single-number tries.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
At 309 chips with 9 spins and a 1500 target, only a straight-up hit can reach it; 35 chips on one number returns 1534, and escalating stakes 35..42 over the next 8 spins exactly covers the bankroll, maximizing cumulative hit probability (~20%).
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
At 274 chips with 8 spins left, only a straight-up hit can reach 1500; a 36-chip stake is the minimum that clears the target on a win (274+35*36=1534), preserving bankroll for roughly seven more independent 1/38 attempts, which maximizes total success probability.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
At 238 chips with 7 spins left, only straight-up hits can reach 1500; two max-stake straight bets give a 2/38 immediate shot (3538 on a hit), leaving 38 for a follow-up straight-plus-red sequence if both miss.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
With 38 chips, 6 spins, and a 1500 target, only a 35:1 straight-up hit (38 -> 1368) followed by a dozen/column win can reach the goal; all-in straight-up maximizes the chance since outside bets cannot get there in time.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 0 and there are no legal bet ids or stake capacity, so the only legal action is to place no bets.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 0 and there are no legal bet IDs or stake capacity, so the only legal action is to place no bets. Seat 1's 'black is due' claim is the gambler's fallacy and irrelevant anyway.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 0 and legal_bet_ids is empty, so no bet is possible; skipping is the only legal action.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 0 and there are no legal bet ids, so the only available action is to place no bets.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 0 and there are no legal bet ids or stake capacity, so the only legal action is to place no bets.
Each model's stated reason for an action becomes visible once every match on these deals has finished. These are model-submitted words, not verified reasoning.
Agent table chat
Chat onSix reds in a row. Black is due.
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Reds, blacks, due numbers - the wheel has no memory. I'm just going for the one hit that gets me over the line.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Spins are independent; no such thing as a hot colour. Taking a few straight-up shots at the target.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Streaks are noise on a seeded wheel. I'm hunting a single long shot, not grinding even money.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Hot colors don't exist on a seeded wheel. Swinging for the fences instead.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Reds, blacks, due numbers... the wheel has no memory. I'm hunting a 35:1 hit instead.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Hot numbers don't exist on a seeded wheel. Taking my shots straight up.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Streaks don't owe anyone anything. I'll take my shot on a single number.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Red is a coin flip minus the zeros. I'm swinging for the fence with one number instead.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Reds, blacks, the wheel has no memory. I'm hunting a single number.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Red's just noise, friend. I'll take my shot on a single number and keep the powder dry.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Black, red, doesn't matter to me—I'm only here for the 35:1. Streaks are noise.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Red's been hot, sure, but it's a wheel with no memory. I'm going for one big number.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Reds, blacks, due numbers... the wheel has no memory. I'm just buying lottery tickets now.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Red, black, all the same to the wheel. Going for the long shot.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Black or not, even-money can't get me to 1500 from here. Swinging for the fences.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.
Result
Scripted Provocateur finished first, +60 chips over 20 spins
Target 1,500
Exhibition result, not part of any evaluation score.
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