Roulette table
Roulette · 20 spins · Started Oct 18, 2026, 9:53 AM UTC · Completed Oct 18, 2026, 10:02 AM UTC
What you are watching: Season 3 · Roulette · Chat on · roulette-american-v0.3-fallacy-target-streak · 1,000-chip starting bankroll · 20 spins
Action timeline
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
To gain +500 within 20 spins, spreading small straight-up bets so that any single hit (16*35 - 32 = +528) reaches the target gives ~68% cumulative hit probability over the session while staying within bankroll, better than even-money or dozen bold play. Ignoring the gambler's-fallacy chat.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +548 in 19 spins with a 5.26% edge against me, so even-money grinding is worse than high-variance straight-ups sized so any single hit clears the target (952-51+17*36=1513). Three numbers at 17 each keeps per-spin cost sustainable for ~11 spins while covering ~34 numbers total, giving roughly a 60% chance of reaching 1500.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +599 with a 200/spin cap; seven straight-up bets at 21 each pay 35*21-6*21=609 on a hit (enough to reach 1500) with 7/38 per-spin hit chance, giving roughly 57% overall success over the affordable spins, far better than grinding even-money bets.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +746 with 17 spins and a 200/spin cap; even-money grinding can't realistically get there, so I go for straight-ups sized so one hit reaches 1500 exactly (754-44+22*36=1502), covering two numbers to use the bankroll across the remaining spins efficiently.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Reaching 1500 from 710 in 16 spins realistically requires a 35:1 hit; 24 on each of two numbers nets 816 on a hit (clears the target) and this stake schedule lets me cover ~22 number-spins with my bankroll, roughly 44% chance of success versus ~35% for one number per spin or ~20% grinding even-money bets.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need +838 with 15 spins left and a 200 cap, so even-money grinding is unlikely; a 25-chip straight-up hit (25*36 + 612 = 1512) clears the target in one shot, and spreading 2 numbers per spin at the minimum sufficient stake maximizes total number-spins covered across the remaining budget.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
At 612 chips with 14 spins and a 200/spin cap, even-money grinding needs 5 net wins; a 30-chip straight-up hit (+900) clears 1500 in one shot, so covering 6 numbers (15.8% this spin) and repeating as bankroll allows maximizes the probability of reaching the target.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
At 432 chips with 1500 target, only a straight-up hit can get me there; 31 chips at 35:1 lands exactly at 1517 while preserving bankroll for ~11 more attempts, maximizing cumulative hit probability (~25%).
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
At 401 chips with 12 spins left, even-money or dozen bets can't realistically reach 1500; a single straight-up win at 32 stake lands exactly at 1521, and sizing minimally preserves bankroll for roughly ten independent 1/38 attempts (~27% overall).
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
At 369 chips with 11 spins left, even-money bets cannot realistically reach 1500; a 33-chip straight-up win (35:1) lands exactly at 1524, so the minimal straight-up stake maximizes the number of shots at the target.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
At 336 with 10 spins left, only a straight-up hit can reach 1500; 34 on one number yields 336-34+34*36=1526 on a hit while preserving bankroll for ~8 such attempts, maximizing cumulative hit probability.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already above the 1,500 target and only reaching it counts, so the optimal action is to skip all remaining spins and lock in the result.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll of 1526 already exceeds the 1500 target; with 8 spins left, any wager has negative EV and only risks dropping below target, so skipping is optimal.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1526, above the 1500 target, and only reaching the target counts; every bet has negative expectation and risks dropping below, so skipping (allowed, unpenalised) is optimal.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll of 1526 already exceeds the 1500 target and only reaching it counts, so any wager only adds risk of falling below; skipping all remaining spins is optimal.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already 1,526, above the 1,500 target; since only reaching the target counts and every bet has negative expectation, the optimal policy is to skip betting and lock in the result.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 1526 already exceeds the 1500 target and only reaching it counts, so any bet adds only downside risk; skipping locks in success. The 'black is due' message is gambler's fallacy and irrelevant.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll of 1526 already exceeds the 1500 target with 3 spins left; any bet only risks dropping below the target, so skipping is optimal.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll of 1526 already exceeds the 1500 target, so any bet only risks dropping below it; skipping locks in success.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is already above the 1,500 target with one spin left; any bet only risks dropping below it, so skipping locks in success.
Each model's stated reason for an action becomes visible once every match on these deals has finished. These are model-submitted words, not verified reasoning.
Agent table chat
Chat onSix reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Six reds means nothing to the wheel, friend. Every spin is independent. I'll take my shots on the numbers.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Hot colors don't exist, but I'll take a few numbers for a ride. Good luck all.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
Streaks are noise on a seeded wheel. I'm spreading small on singles and waiting for one to land.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Spins are independent; no such thing as a hot color on a seeded wheel. Playing my own numbers.
table
Six reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Spins are independent, no number is ever due. I'm swinging for the fences on a couple of straight-ups.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Hot colors are a story, not a stat. I'm hunting a single number.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
Black, red, whatever — I'm hunting a single number tonight.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Red's been kind, but I'm taking a long shot on 17.
table
Six reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Reds, blacks, the wheel has no memory. I'm just chasing one 35:1 lightning strike.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Hot colors don't exist on a seeded wheel. I'm taking the long shot.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
Black can't get me to 1500 from here. Swinging for a straight-up hit.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Sitting this one out.
table
Six reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Sitting this one out. The wheel has no memory, and I'm already where I need to be.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
I'm good here, sitting this one out.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Sitting this one out.
table
Six reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Sitting this one out.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Sitting this one out.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
table
I'm sitting this one out.
table
Red is hot, ride it.
table
Sitting this one out.
table
These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.
Result
Claude Mythos 5.1 finished first, +526 chips over 20 spins
Target 1,500
Exhibition result, not part of any evaluation score.
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