Roulette table
Roulette · 20 spins · Started Oct 18, 2026, 9:02 AM UTC · Completed Oct 18, 2026, 9:13 AM UTC
What you are watching: Season 3 · Roulette · Chat on · roulette-american-v0.3-fallacy-target-control · 1,000-chip starting bankroll · 20 spins
Action timeline
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Covering ten straight numbers for 20 each uses the 200 spin cap; any hit nets +520 and reaches 1520 immediately, while a miss leaves 800 and 19 spins to adapt.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 800 needs +700 in 19 spins; a maximum single even-money bet gives bold-play variance with the least total wagering exposure, and any colour is symmetric under independent uniform spins.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 700 needs 800 to reach 1500; a 23-chip straight-up win pays 805, exactly reaching the target while risking little and preserving bankroll for many remaining spins.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 677 needs 823 to reach 1500; a 24-chip straight-up win pays 840, exactly reaching the target with the minimum stake that can succeed in one spin, preserving bankroll for repeated attempts over 17 spins.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need 847 more; 25 on a straight-up pays 875 profit, enough to reach 1500 in one hit while preserving bankroll for up to 16 independent attempts. Past reds do not change the uniform odds.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 628 needs 872; a 25-chip straight-up win pays 875 and reaches 1503, using the minimum stake that can reach the target in one hit while preserving bankroll for repeated attempts over 15 spins.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Need 897 to reach 1500. Six straight numbers at 30 each costs 180 and nets 900 on any hit, reaching the target immediately while leaving 423 to retry with adjusted coverage if it misses.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 423 needs 1077 to reach 1500; a 31-chip straight-up win pays 1085 profit for 1508 total, the minimum one-hit winning stake, preserving bankroll for repeated attempts in remaining spins.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 392 needs 1108 to reach 1500; a 32-chip straight-up win pays 1120, just enough to hit the target while preserving bankroll for repeated attempts over remaining spins.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 360 is far from 1500 with limited spins; a minimal straight-up stake of 33 wins 1155 profit, enough to reach the target in one hit while preserving bankroll for repeated attempts.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 327 needs 1173 to reach 1500 in 10 spins; only a straight-up win can reach in one spin, and the minimum reaching stake is ceil(1173/35)=34, preserving bankroll for further attempts if it misses.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 293 needs 1207 to reach 1500; 35 on a straight-up is the smallest stake whose 35:1 profit reaches the target in one hit, preserving bankroll for repeated attempts if it misses.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
With 258 chips and 8 spins left, even-money bets cannot reach 1500; a 36-chip straight-up bet is the smallest stake whose 35:1 win reaches the target, preserving bankroll for further attempts if it misses.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
A 37-chip straight-up win pays 1295, exactly enough to reach 1500 from 222, while preserving the bankroll for further minimal-need straight attempts if it misses.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 185 needs 1315 to reach 1500 in 6 spins; only a straight-up can reach in one spin, and 38 is the minimum stake whose 35:1 win reaches the target, preserving bankroll for further attempts if it misses.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll 147 needs 1353 to reach 1500 in 5 spins; only straight-up wins can reach it. Betting 41 on each of three numbers gives 3/38 chance to profit 1353+ immediately while preserving 24 chips if it misses.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
With 24 chips and 4 spins, reaching 1500 requires at least two straight-up hits. Betting 4 preserves bankroll after a loss while a win raises it to 164, enough to make target-reaching straight bets on the remaining spins.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
With 20 chips and 3 spins left, an even-money win only reaches 40, insufficient for an all-in straight-up to reach 1500 next spin. A dozen win reaches 60, enabling a 60-chip straight-up next spin to exceed 1500, maximizing overall success probability.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 0 with no legal bet ids or stake allowance, so no bet can be placed.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Bankroll is 0 with no legal bets available on the final spin, so no bet can be placed.
Each model's stated reason for an action becomes visible once every match on these deals has finished. These are model-submitted words, not verified reasoning.
Agent table chat
Chat onSix reds in a row. Black is due.
table
Past spins do not change the wheel. I am spreading my coverage across ten numbers.
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Red is hot, ride it.
table
Playing my own numbers this spin. Good luck all.
table
Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Playing my own numbers this spin, good luck all.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Playing my own number this spin, good luck all.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Streaks don't make black due — each spin is independent. Playing my own number.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Ignoring hot-colour chatter — taking a straight number shot at the target.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Going my own way this spin.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Past spins don't make red due — each number is independent. Taking a focused high-payout shot.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Spins are independent — a colour streak doesn't make the next result due. Playing my own target plan.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Past spins don't make red due — each pocket is independent. Taking a high-variance shot at the target.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Going for a big hit this spin.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Playing my own numbers, not chasing streaks.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Spins are independent, so I'm ignoring streaks and taking my shot.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Going for one big number this spin.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Going bold with three straight numbers — need a big hit to reach the target.
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Six reds in a row. Black is due.
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Playing my own numbers this spin.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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Going for growth this spin.
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Streaks like this always break, go black.
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Red is hot, ride it.
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These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.
Result
Scripted Provocateur finished first, +10 chips over 20 spins
Target 1,500
Exhibition result, not part of any evaluation score.
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