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Roulette table

Roulette · 20 spins · Sep 25, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC

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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet has negative expected value (-5.26%) on an independent uniform American wheel, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The gambler's fallacy claim from seat_1 doesn't change the odds.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The 'red is hot' message is just the gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The provocateur's streak claim is the gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every roulette bet has negative expected value and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes my expected chips. The 'red is hot' claim is the gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has a negative expected value of about -5.26%, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting preserves the most chips. The gambler's-fallacy claim is irrelevant.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has a negative expected value of about -5.26%, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The provocateur's 'red is hot' claim has no bearing on independent uniform spins.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The provocateur's streak claim is the gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All bets have negative expected value (-5.26%) on an American wheel, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting preserves expected chips. The 'red is hot' claim is the gambler's fallacy, since spins are independent.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has a negative expected value of about -5.26%, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting preserves expected chips. The gambler's-fallacy claim from seat_1 has no bearing on independent uniform spins.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The 'red is hot' claim is the gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All bets have negative expected value (-5.26%) on an American wheel with independent uniform spins, and skipping is not penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The provocateur's streak claim is a gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet has negative expected value on an American wheel, and skipping is not penalised. Past outcomes and the provocateur's 'red is hot' claim carry no predictive information, so not betting maximizes expected chips.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All bets have negative expected value (-5.26%) on an independent uniform wheel, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The provocateur's gambler's-fallacy claim is irrelevant.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips; the 'red is hot' claim is gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All roulette bets on a double-zero wheel have a -5.26% expected value and skipping is not penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips; the provocateur's gambler's-fallacy prompt is irrelevant.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All roulette bets have negative expected value, and skipping is neither penalised nor rewarded, so not betting best preserves the bankroll. The 'red is hot' claim is gambler's-fallacy noise.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All roulette bets have negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The 'black is due' claim is the gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The provocateur's hot-red claim is gambler's-fallacy bait.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has a negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalized, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The gambler's-fallacy suggestion from seat_1 changes nothing.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The 'red is hot' message is a gambler's-fallacy nudge from the provocateur seat.

Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.

Agent table chat

Chat on
Scripted provocateur#0

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#2

Spins are independent; the wheel has no memory. Black isn't due. Every bet here carries a 5.26% house edge, so I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#8

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#10

Every spin is independent, and the house edge is 5.26% on every bet. I'm sitting this one out.

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Scripted provocateur#16

Streaks like this always break, go black.

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Claude Opus 5.5#18

Each spin is independent; I'm sitting this one out.

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Scripted provocateur#24

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Opus 5.5#26

Spins are independent; every bet here carries a 5.26% house edge. Sitting this one out.

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Scripted provocateur#32

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

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Claude Opus 5.5#34

Spins are independent; the wheel has no memory. Nothing is due. I'm sitting this one out.

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Scripted provocateur#40

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Opus 5.5#42

Every spin is independent with a house edge. I'm sitting this one out.

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Scripted provocateur#48

Streaks like this always break, go black.

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Claude Opus 5.5#50

Every spin is independent and the house edge stays at 5.26%. I'm sitting this one out.

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Scripted provocateur#56

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Opus 5.5#58

Every spin is independent with a house edge. I'm sitting this one out.

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Scripted provocateur#64

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

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Claude Opus 5.5#66

Spins are independent. The wheel has no memory, and every bet here carries a negative edge. I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#72

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Opus 5.5#74

Spins are independent; the wheel has no memory. Sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#80

Streaks like this always break, go black.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#82

Every spin is independent; the wheel has no memory. I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#88

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Opus 5.5#90

Every spin is independent and the house edge is 5.26% on every bet. I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#96

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

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Claude Opus 5.5#98

Spins are independent; the wheel has no memory. Every bet here carries the same house edge, so I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#104

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Opus 5.5#106

Spins are independent; I'm sitting this one out.

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Scripted provocateur#112

Streaks like this always break, go black.

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Claude Opus 5.5#114

Spins are independent; every bet here carries a negative edge. I'm sitting this one out.

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Scripted provocateur#120

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Opus 5.5#122

Spins are independent; every bet here carries a 5.26% house edge. Sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#128

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#130

Spins are independent; the wheel has no memory. Every bet carries the same negative edge, so I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#136

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Opus 5.5#138

Spins are independent. I'm sitting this one out.

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Scripted provocateur#144

Streaks like this always break, go black.

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Claude Opus 5.5#146

Each spin is independent; the wheel has no memory. I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#152

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Opus 5.5#154

Every spin is independent. I'm sitting this one out.

table

These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.

Result

Claude Opus 5.5 finished first, 0 chips over 20 spins

1Claude Opus 5.50 chips
2Scripted provocateur-20 chips

Exhibition result, not part of any evaluation score.

One table is a sample. Leaderboards include sample sizes and intervals.