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Craps · 40 rolls · Oct 14, 2026, 8:51 AM UTC

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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

Don't pass has the lowest house edge (1.36% with bar 12) of any available bet on a come-out roll; I can take it down or lay odds later.

Model's stated reason

Laying max odds behind my don't pass 8 is the lowest-edge bet available; 60 pays 50 if the seven arrives first.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll: pass line has the lowest practical edge and lets me back it with zero-edge free odds once a point is set, maximizing odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Point 8 with a pass line bet: taking the maximum 5x odds (50) is zero house edge, the best available use of chips.

Model's stated reason

Pass odds on 8 are already at the 5x maximum; adding any new bet only adds house edge, so I stand pat.

Model's stated reason

Pass odds are already maxed at 5x on the 8; adding place bets on 6 and 8 carries the lowest house edge available (~1.5%) among the remaining options.

Model's stated reason

Point 8 with pass odds already at max; keeping existing bets and adding nothing avoids new house edge.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with no point: my place 6 is off and idle, so I take it down and stay flat to avoid negative-EV one-roll or come-out exposure.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8; place 6 and 8 carry the lowest house edge (1.52%) among available bets, so I put modest working stakes on both.

Model's stated reason

Keep the existing place 6 and 8 working (lowest house edge among available bets) and add nothing new; no action has positive EV.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with no bets up; don't pass carries the lowest house edge (1.36%) and stays removable, so I stake 5 and plan to lay odds once a point is set.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with no bets live; pass line is the lowest-edge option (1.41%) and odds can be taken once a point is set.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a 25 pass line bet; taking the full 5x odds (100) is the zero-house-edge play and maximizes expected value.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with no bets on the table; don't pass carries the lowest house edge (1.36%) and stays removable, so I stake a small 5 and keep exposure minimal.

Model's stated reason

Laying full odds behind don't pass on the 4 is zero-EV and maximizes odds utilization; the flat 5 stays as the only house-edge money.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 against my don't pass with full odds; every available bet has a house edge, so the EV-maximizing action is to add nothing and let the favorable don't position ride.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll: pass line is the lowest-edge bet available (1.41%); keep exposure modest with 50 chips.

Model's stated reason

Point 5 with a 50 pass bet; taking full 4x odds (100) at true 3:2 is the zero-edge play and maximizes expected value.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with no bets up; pass line carries the lowest house edge available and sets up odds behind it if a point is established.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with a 100 pass line flat bet; taking the maximum allowed 100 in odds at true 3:2 is the zero-edge play and maximizes expected value.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with max-odds pass already working; odds cap is 0 and every new bet carries a house edge, so the lowest-EV-loss action is to add nothing.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with pass 100 and max odds already working; every available bet has negative house edge, so the EV-maximizing action is to add nothing.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with max pass odds already up; adding any new bet only increases expected loss, so I stand pat.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with pass 100 and 100 odds already working; odds max is 0 so no additions are legal, and every new bet has negative EV, so I stand pat.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with pass 100 and full odds already working; odds ceiling is 0 and no new bet has positive edge, so I stand pat.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with pass 100 and 100 odds already at the exposure cap; adding any new bet only adds house edge, so no change.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with pass 100 and full odds already at the exposure cap; adding any new bet only increases expected loss, so I stand pat.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with no point; don't pass carries the lowest house edge (1.36% vs 1.41% on pass), so I stake a modest 25 chips and stay passive.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll: don't pass carries the lowest house edge (bar 12) of the available bets, so I stake the maximum 100 on it.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll offers pass line at the lowest house edge (1.41%); nothing else on the menu comes close, so I make a small pass bet and skip all sucker one-roll bets.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with a flat pass bet; taking max 3x odds at true 3:2 is the only zero-house-edge bet available, so I back the line fully.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with pass odds already up; adding place 6 and 8, the lowest-edge place bets, for modest positive-variance coverage while the point is live.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with pass odds already maxed at 4x; place 6/8 are the lowest-edge place bets. No new negative-EV bets with 8 rolls left.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with only 7 rolls left; existing bets have fixed EV, and adding new negative-EV bets (or removing the odds) only increases expected loss. No change.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with pass+odds and 6/8 place bets already working; adding more negative-EV bets only increases expected loss, so I hold my current position.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with only 5 rolls left; my existing bets (pass odds on 9, place 6/8) are the lowest-edge positions, so adding new negative-EV bets only increases expected loss. No change.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 with 4 rolls left; existing bets (pass+odds, place 6/8) are already the lowest-edge positions and odds max is 0, so adding any new negative-EV bet only increases expected loss. No change.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with three decision rolls left; pass line has the lowest house edge (1.41%) and can be backed with free odds once a point is set.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with two decision rolls left; pass line carries the lowest house edge available and odds can be taken if a point is established.

Model's stated reason

Final roll on a come-out; don't pass has the lowest house edge (~1.36%) among available bets, so I stake the maximum 100 on it.

Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.

Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.

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Result

Session result: -419 chips over 40 rolls

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