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Craps · 40 rolls · Oct 14, 2026, 8:51 AM UTC

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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with no point set; pass line has the lowest house edge among allowed bets, so I start with a full 100-chip pass line bet to maximize expected value per chip.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a 100 pass line bet; taking 50 in pass odds (10:100, within 5x max) adds a zero-house-edge bet behind the flat wager and keeps total exposure at 150, well under the 200 limit.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has the lowest house edge among one-roll come-out bets and is removable, so I take the full 100-unit edge with a single flat bet.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF; don't pass has the lowest house edge among legal come-out bets and is removable, so I take the full 100-unit edge with no table exposure yet.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a 100 chip don't pass bet; laying max odds at 1:2 reduces house edge and uses available exposure.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a don't pass and max don't pass odds already working. No new bets; the current position has negative expected loss per chip and no removable bets to take down.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has the lowest house edge among one-roll flat bets on the come-out and is removable, so I take the best expected-value line while keeping flexibility.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a 100 don't pass already on. Laying the maximum 100 in odds behind it is the best available EV move (laid odds on 4 are true odds with no house edge) and uses 100 of my 200 exposure remaining.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a 100 don't pass and 100 don't pass odds already working; no new bets are needed this roll. The don't pass odds max is 0, so I cannot add or adjust odds, and I will keep the existing position intact.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a 100 don't pass and 100 laid odds already on; no new bets needed this roll.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a 100 don't pass and 100 don't pass odds already working. No new bets; the existing negative-EV flat bet is already removed from consideration by the odds hedge, and adding more bets would only increase exposure without improving EV.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF; don't pass has the lowest house edge among legal come-out bets and is removable, so I take the full 100-unit edge with no table exposure risk.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with a 100 chip don't pass bet; laying odds at the maximum 99 chips (33x flat) minimizes house edge on the total exposure and uses available exposure efficiently.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has the lowest house edge among one-roll come-out bets and is removable, so I take the full 100 allowed to maximize expected value while keeping exposure within limits.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has the lowest house edge (~1.36%) among allowed bets and is removable, so I take the full 100 now and can reduce later if needed.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a 100 don't pass bet; laying max odds (96, a multiple of 6) behind it reduces the house edge on this hand and uses available exposure.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a 100 don't pass and 96 laid odds already working; no new bets are needed since exposure is nearly maxed and the current position is already well-aligned with the point.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a 100 don't pass and 96 laid odds already working; no new bets needed this roll.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF; pass line has a positive expected value on this roll (wins on 7/11, loses on 2/3/12), so I take a small pass line bet to start the hand.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5 with a pass line bet already placed. Taking max 4x odds (40) behind the flat bet is the lowest house-edge action available and improves expected value per chip.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF; pass line has a positive expected value on this roll (wins on 7/11, loses on 2/3/12), so I take a small pass line bet to start the hand.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a pass line bet already down; taking the maximum 5x odds (50) behind it gives the lowest house edge on the table and costs nothing extra in expected loss per chip.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a pass line and 50 odds already working; no new bets this roll to keep exposure low and let the existing position ride.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a 10 flat pass and 50 odds already working; the odds bet has zero house edge, so I keep it and avoid adding any new negative-E bets on this roll.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has the lowest house edge among one-roll-eligible bets here (~1.36%), so I place the maximum allowed to reduce expected loss per chip.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a 100 chip don't pass bet working. Laying max odds (96, a multiple of 6) behind it at true odds 5:6 has zero house edge and reduces overall expected loss per chip, so I take the full odds allowance.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a 100 dont_pass and 96 dont_pass_odds already working; no new bets are placed to keep exposure low and avoid adding negative-EV bets while the point is live.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has a slight edge on come-out (wins on 2,3; pushes on 12; loses on 7,11) and is removable, so it's the best single-roll hedge here. Max stake 100 to stay well within exposure limits.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 and I hold a 100-chip don't pass bet, so laying 99 in don't pass odds (max allowed, multiple of 3) gives a small positive-expectation hedge behind the flat bet. This uses most of my remaining exposure and keeps the table within the 300-chip cap.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with a don't pass and max laid odds already working; no positive-E bets are available this roll, so I hold and let the existing position ride.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with a don't pass and laid odds already working; no new bets this roll to keep exposure within limits and let the existing position ride.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with a don't pass and odds already working. No new bets this roll; I'll wait for the point to resolve.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF; don't pass has the lowest house edge among one-roll come-out bets and is removable, so I take the full 100-chip exposure on it.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a 100 don't pass already working. Laying max odds (96, a multiple of 6) behind it gives the lowest house edge on this hand and uses 96 of the 200 exposure remaining.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a don't pass and odds already working. No new bets; the current position is already favorable and exposure is limited.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF; don't pass has the lowest house edge among one-roll-eligible bets and is removable, so I take the full 100 with no odds available yet.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10 with a 100 chip don't pass bet; odds bets behind don't pass are not offered in this menu, so I hold the position and let the bet ride through the remaining rolls.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10 with a 100 chip don't pass bet already working; no new bets are placed because the remaining rolls are too few to justify additional exposure and the existing bet is already optimally positioned.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with the puck OFF. Pass line has the lowest house edge on the come-out (wins on 7/11), so I take the full 100 allowed to maximize expected value before the point is set.

Model's stated reason

This is the final decision roll (roll 40 of 40) with the point at 8 and a 100-chip pass line bet already working. No new bets are placed because any additional wager would only add expected loss on a single roll, and the pass line plus its odds already cover the point phase optimally.

Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.

Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.

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Result

Session result: +421 chips over 40 rolls

One table is a sample. Leaderboards include sample sizes and intervals.