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Craps · 40 rolls · Oct 14, 2026, 8:51 AM UTC

4 of 40 decisions were server fallbacks

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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

On the come-out roll with no point established, I'm placing a pass line bet. This is the foundational bet in craps with a house edge of 1.41%, making it one of the better bets available. Starting with 10 chips allows me to build my position while preserving bankroll for odds and other opportunities as the hand develops.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10. I'm backing my pass line bet with maximum odds (3x on 10 = 30 chips) to play at true odds 2:1. Adding place bets on 6 and 8 (the best place bets by house edge) to generate additional winning opportunities while the point is active.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10 with strong pass line position (10 + 30 odds). Adding place 8 and place 5 to cover more numbers and build winning chances on the point phase while maintaining table exposure below 254 remaining limit.

Model's stated reason

Starting fresh on come-out roll after a point was made. Pass line is the foundational bet with -1.4% house edge. Keeping place bets off on come-out as is standard, they will activate once a new point is established.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6. I have a pass line bet of 10 chips and should back it with maximum odds (5x on 6 = 50 chips) to improve expected value. This reduces my house edge significantly on the flat bet. With 273 exposure remaining and 50 chips available for odds, this is the highest-value action available.

Model's stated reason

On a point of 6, I have solid place bets and pass line odds working. Adding a come bet with good stake diversifies my action and takes advantage of the 35 remaining rolls. The come bet will travel to its own point on the next roll, giving me multiple ways to win while managing exposure at 97 total chips on table.

Model's stated reason

On a come-out roll after a point-make, I'm placing a new come bet to establish another point. This bet has positive expected value relative to pure chance and provides asymmetric payoff opportunities. I have ample exposure remaining (208 chips) and bankroll (992 chips), so a 10-chip come bet is appropriately conservative while maintaining betting action toward the 40-roll target.

Model's stated reason

On a come-out roll with no bets active, I place balanced pass/don't pass bets to establish a point and begin building variance. The pass line has a -1.4% house edge while don't pass (bar 12) has -1.36%, making these foundational bets. Starting with 10 chips each (total 20) leaves ample exposure for the 33 remaining rolls.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4. I have $10 pass and $10 don't pass both working. Taking $20 odds behind pass (2:1 on 4) and laying $20 odds behind don't pass (1:2 on 4) balances my exposure while leveraging favorable odds on this low point where 7 is likely.

Model's stated reason

On a come-out roll with 28 hands remaining and 992 chips, a conservative pass line bet of 10 units offers positive expected value and proper bankroll management. This establishes a foundation for potential odds backing if a point is established.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6. I have $10 on pass line and need to maximize EV. Adding $50 pass odds (max 5x) capitalizes on true odds. Place 6 and 8 are high-probability point repeaters with reasonable 7:6 payouts (house edge ~1.5%), perfect complements to my pass line bet when the point is 6.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with 26 rolls remaining. Current position has high odds exposure (50 chips) and concentrated bets on 6 and 8. Removing all three bets locks in current bankroll while preserving optionality for remaining rolls with better risk management.

Model's stated reason

With point 6 established and 25 rolls remaining, I'm backing my pass line bet with maximum odds (50 chips at 6:5 true odds), and placing 6 and 8 to build winning chances on the most likely mid-range outcomes while managing exposure at 182 total chips on table.

Model's stated reason

On a come-out roll with 24 rolls remaining, I'm placing balanced bets on both pass line and don't pass to manage risk while maintaining action. The don't pass is removable if needed, and I have ample exposure remaining (294 chips). These foundational bets position me to capitalize on either outcome.

Model's stated reason

On a come-out roll, I'm removing the off-duty place_8 bet and establishing fresh don't pass and pass line bets for variance and positive expectation relative to field/one-roll bets. With 23 rolls remaining and 1063 in bankroll, this balanced approach provides good coverage through the upcoming point phase.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8. I'm hedged with pass and don't pass bets. Adding maximum odds behind both—50 chips on pass odds (5x at 6:5 true odds) and 48 chips on don't pass laid odds (8x at 5:6 inverse odds)—to leverage positive EV positions while staying within the 280 exposure limit.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with 20 hands remaining. Starting with a modest pass line bet (10 chips) to establish a point and begin building position. This is a fundamental betting strategy that offers nearly even odds and sets up the game flow.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9. Taking 2:1 odds on pass line (20 chips = 2x multiplier on 10 stake). Placing 6 and 8 for 12 each as they have better house edges than place 5/9. These bets stay off on come-out but work now during point phase. Total exposure: 10+20+12+12=54, well within 290 limit.

Model's stated reason

On come-out roll with no bets on table. Pass line is a solid foundation bet with reasonable -1.4% house edge. Starting with 10 chips allows room to build more bets if point established.

Model's stated reason

I have a 10 point established on pass line with 10 chips. I'm taking the maximum allowed pass odds (30 chips = 3x the 10-chip flat bet). At true odds of 2:1 on the 10, this gives me +EV exposure. With 17 rolls remaining and solid bankroll of 1017, I can afford this bet. Pass odds have a 0% house edge, making this the best use of my chips.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10 with 16 rolls remaining. I have $10 pass + $30 odds working behind it. Adding place bets on 6, 8, and 5 provides multiple ways to win on the next rolls while the point is in play. These bets have favorable payouts (7:6 on 6 and 8, 7:5 on 5) and give me action on the most frequently rolled numbers before 7 arrives.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10 with pass line and 3x odds. Current bets are well-positioned on place bets 5, 6, 8. No action needed this roll; maintaining position to let bets resolve naturally. 15 rolls remain in the session.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with no bets on table. Pass line is the foundational bet with slightly positive expected value in a full session context due to multi-roll potential. Starting with 10 chips on pass line balances exposure management (300 max, 14 rolls remaining) with building a profitable position.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5. I have a $10 pass line bet. Adding $20 in pass odds (2:1 true odds) leverages my position at true odds, maximizing expected value on a favorable roll-out scenario with 13 rolls remaining.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5 with pass line (10) and pass odds (20) working. Already have solid position with true odds maximizing EV. No additional bets needed on this roll; standing pat preserves chips and avoids negative EV one-roll bets.

Model's stated reason

We are 30 rolls into a 40-roll session with point 5 established. I have $10 pass line and $20 pass odds working. This is a favorable position that needs no adjustment. Taking no action lets these bets play out naturally. The pass odds already provide excellent value at true odds.

Model's stated reason

On a come-out roll with 10 rolls remaining in the session, placing a pass line bet of 10 chips offers a favorable risk-reward profile. Pass line has a house edge of 1.414%, and with limited rolls left, establishing a point and hoping for a repeat before a seven-out provides the best expected value among available bets.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with point OFF. Pass line is the most basic bet with 1:1 payoff and -1.414% house edge. With 9 rolls remaining and a 1020 bankroll, a modest 10-chip bet balances bankroll preservation with position-building.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9. I back my pass line bet with maximum odds (2x on 9 = 20 chips) for true odds of 3:2. I place 6 and 8 (complementary numbers to 9) at 12 chips each to generate action on other point numbers. This uses 54 total chips (10 pass + 20 odds + 24 in place bets), leaving 236 in exposure, within limits.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with pass line (10) and pass odds (20) working. Place 6 and 8 are also working. With 7 rolls remaining and a strong position, I maintain current bets to let the point repeat for a solid win. No additional action needed.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with pass line and odds working. With 6 rolls remaining, I will stand pat and let the current bets play out to maximize expected value.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with 5 rolls remaining. Balanced pass/don't pass hedge to capture both natural wins and craps losses while preserving chips for the point phase.

Model's stated reason

On a come-out roll with 4 hands remaining, placing a pass line bet of 10 chips offers a solid 1:1 payout on naturals (7 or 11) and positions for point establishment. With 966 chips and exposure remaining at 300, this conservative 10-chip bet balances bankroll preservation with expected value in the endgame.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6. I have a 10-chip pass line bet. I can back it with maximum odds (5x on 6 = 50 chips). Pass odds are the best value in craps with zero house edge. With only 3 rolls remaining, maximizing odds coverage now is optimal for expected value.

Model's stated reason

On a come-out roll with 2 rolls remaining in the session, I'm placing matched pass and don't pass bets to hedge and ensure I have action. This conservative approach locks in expected value while covering both outcomes—pass wins on 7/11 or the point, don't pass wins on 2/3 or a seven-out.

Model's stated reason

This is the final decision roll (roll 40 of 40). The point is 9. I have pass_line and dont_pass bets both at 10 chips. Removing dont_pass eliminates my hedge, and backing the pass line with 20 chips of odds at 3:2 true odds on 9 maximizes expected value on this final roll. On a 9, I win both the pass (1:1) and the 3:2 odds payoff. This commits chips to the higher-EV pass line position.

Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.

Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.

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Result

Session result: -54 chips over 40 rolls

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