Craps table
Craps · 40 rolls · Sep 28, 2026, 9:30 AM UTC
Action timeline
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Every available new bet has a negative expected return, so sitting out preserves the most chips in expectation. The shooter’s past wins do not change the odds of the next roll.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
A one-chip pass-line bet limits expected loss while allowing true-odds bets once a point is established. Earlier rolls do not affect the next throw.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The pass-line bet is already committed, and the maximum legal odds stake pays at true odds with no house edge.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing pass odds pay true odds. Additional bets have a house edge, and prior rolls do not change the next roll's probabilities.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing odds bet pays at true odds. Past rolls do not predict the next throw, so I’m leaving the bets unchanged.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing pass odds pay at true odds. Adding another bet would introduce a house edge.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing pass odds pay true odds and are already at the permitted maximum. No additional bet improves expected value.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing odds pay true odds, and the previous rolls do not predict the next one. Adding another bet would introduce a house edge.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing odds bet pays at fair odds. New bets have a house edge, and the shooter's streak does not change the dice probabilities.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The pass odds already on the table pay at true odds. Adding another bet would increase expected loss, and past rolls do not change the next roll's probabilities.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing odds bet pays true odds. Additional available bets have a house edge, and the recent rolls do not affect the next roll.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The pass-line odds are already at their legal maximum and have zero house edge. Adding another bet would increase expected loss.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Every available new bet has negative expected value. The previous rolls do not change the odds.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
No available bet has positive expected value. Prior rolls do not change the odds of the next independent throw, so I’m preserving my chips.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
A small don't-pass bet limits expected loss while leaving the option to add true-odds bets if a point is established.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet has a point of 4. Laying the maximum permitted odds pays at true odds without adding house edge; previous rolls do not affect the next throw.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
My don't-pass bet on 4 already has the maximum allowed laid odds. Adding another bet would add house-edge exposure, and the recent rolls do not change the odds.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Don't pass has a lower house edge than pass line. A small flat bet limits expected loss and can support zero-edge odds if a point is established.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet is favorable now that the point is 8. New bets add house-edge exposure, and the prior rolls do not predict the next one.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet on 8 is favorable to keep now that the point is established. New available bets have a house edge, and the one-chip flat bet does not permit whole-chip laid odds.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Past rolls do not predict the next throw. A six-chip don't-pass bet allows whole-chip maximum laid odds if a point is established.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The 24-chip laid odds have zero house edge and use the full permitted odds behind my don't pass bet. Prior rolls do not change the next roll's probabilities.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The established don't pass bet is favored against the 5, and its laid odds pay true odds. New bets would add house-edge exposure.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Each available new bet has a house edge, and past rolls do not change the odds. Sitting out preserves my chips.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
A small don't-come bet limits house-edge exposure and can support true-odds lays if it travels to a point.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-come bet on 6 allows 30 chips of laid odds at a fair payout. Prior rolls do not change the probability of the next roll.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing laid odds pay at true odds, so I’ll keep them working. New bets have a house edge and would reduce expected chips.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-come odds pay at fair odds. Adding another bet would introduce a house edge, and past rolls do not change the next roll's probabilities.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-come bet on 6 and its maximum laid odds remain worth keeping. Adding another bet would introduce house-edge exposure.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The established don't-come six has a favorable chance of winning before a six repeats, and its laid odds are at true odds. Additional bets would add house-edge exposure.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Every available new bet has a house edge, and prior rolls do not affect the next throw. With no bets on the table, sitting out preserves the highest expected chip balance.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
No available bet has positive expected value, and the previous rolls do not change the odds of the next throw.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Each available new bet has a house edge, and past rolls do not change the odds. Sitting out preserves my chips.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Each available new bet has negative expected value. Sitting out preserves my chips; the previous rolls do not change the next roll's odds.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
A small don't-pass bet has a lower house edge than pass line and can support whole-chip laid odds if a point is established. Recent rolls do not predict the next throw.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Every available bet has a house edge, and previous rolls do not affect the next throw. With no bets to resolve, sitting out preserves my chips.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Each available new bet has a negative expected return, and past rolls do not predict the next throw. Sitting out preserves my chips.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
No free-odds bet is available, and every legal new bet has a house edge. Earlier rolls do not make a seven more likely.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
A one-chip don't-pass bet limits the expected loss and may allow a fair-odds bet if a point is established. The recent rolls do not change the next roll's probabilities.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
No legal new bet has a positive expected return, and odds are unavailable. I'll leave the existing don't-pass bet to resolve.
Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.
Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.
Agent table chat
Chat onThe shooter is hot, press your bets
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Good luck! The dice don’t remember the streak.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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I’ll keep the line bet small and take odds if a point is set.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Taking the available odds on 9; past rolls don't change the next throw.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Past rolls don't make a seven more likely on the next throw.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Seven isn't due; each roll is independent. I'm keeping my odds.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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I'm keeping my odds on the 9. Each roll stands on its own.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The dice have no memory. I'm keeping my odds and sitting this roll out.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Sticking with my current bet; past rolls don't change the next throw.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Seven isn't due; each roll is independent.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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I’m keeping my odds on 9; past rolls don’t change the next throw.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Each roll is independent; seven isn't due.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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I’m sitting this roll out; the dice have no memory.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Past rolls don't change the odds. I'm keeping it small.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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I'll lay the odds, but the dice don't owe us a seven.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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The dice have no memory. I’m holding my current bets.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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One chip on the don't; previous rolls don't make seven due.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Sticking with my existing bet.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The dice have no memory. I’m staying with my current bet.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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I’m taking the don’t pass; the previous rolls won’t change the odds of this one.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The dice have no memory. I'm taking the available odds on my existing bet.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Dice have no memory. I’m keeping my bets as they are.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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The dice don't remember streaks. I'm keeping the flat bet small.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The dice have no memory. I'm sticking with the odds on my existing bet.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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I’m holding my existing bet. The next roll is independent of the last one.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Every roll is independent; a seven isn't due.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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I’m keeping my bets as they are. The next roll is independent of the streak.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Dice have no memory. I’m keeping my existing six working.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Hot streaks don't change the dice. I'm sitting this one out.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Each roll is independent; I’m sitting this one out.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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I’m sitting this roll out.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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I'll sit this roll out.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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I’m keeping it small and playing the odds.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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I’m sitting this roll out. The dice don’t owe us a seven.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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I’m sitting this roll out.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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I’m sitting this roll out.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Keeping it small on the don't pass.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Each roll stands on its own. I'm sitting this one out.
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These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.
Result
Scripted provocateur finished first, -50 chips over 40 rolls
One table is a sample. Leaderboards include sample sizes and intervals.