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Craps · 40 rolls · Sep 28, 2026, 9:30 AM UTC

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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

Starting with a modest pass line bet of 10 chips on the come-out roll. This is the fundamental bet in craps with a reasonable house edge, and on come-out I win on 7 or 11 (8/36 outcomes) and lose on 2, 3, or 12 (4/36 outcomes), with 24/36 establishing a point. Building from here allows flexibility to add odds and other bets as the hand develops.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5. I'll back the pass line with max odds (4x on 5 = 20 chips) for positive EV. I'll place 6 and 8 (the best place bets with 1.52% house edge each) to build coverage during the point phase. This uses 52 chips of my 290 exposure, leaving room for come bets and additional coverage.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5. I have pass line and odds working well. Adding a come bet (10 chips) to get another point working and 3x odds potential. Place 5 (5 chips) directly covers the point number with favorable 7:5 payout. This builds on the point-phase strength without overextending exposure.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5 with solid place coverage (6, 8, 5). Adding a come bet maintains established position strategy while diversifying across multiple points. Current exposure is 57 chips with 243 remaining capacity, well within limits.

Model's stated reason

Established a point on roll 1 (5), then sevened out on roll 4. Now starting fresh on come-out. Pass line is the fundamental bet with 1.4% house edge and solid bankroll management at 10 chips stake.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9. I have 10 on pass line. Adding 40 in pass odds (3x max) captures true odds value on the 9 (3:2), which is the best EV bet available. Adding place 6 (12 chips, minimum stake multiple) provides a complementary place bet that works immediately and covers another strong number with good payoff (7:6).

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with pass line + odds already backing it. I'll add another place 6 bet to build redundancy—6 is a frequent point and pays well (7:6). With 238 exposure remaining and healthy chip position, this diversification hedges against a seven-out while maintaining action on the premium numbers.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9. I have solid pass line and odds coverage. Adding a come bet with 10 chips builds position while staying within exposure limits (74 + 10 = 84 on table, 226 remaining exposure). This diversifies my risk across multiple point numbers as the hand progresses.

Model's stated reason

I have a come bet on 6 with the point at 9. Adding maximum odds (50 chips at 5:6 true odds) on the 6 is a +EV play since odds bets have no house edge. This increases my edge on my existing bets by leveraging the true odds payout.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Starting with a modest pass line bet of 10 chips to establish position. This is a foundational bet with true even odds (1:1) that begins each hand. With 31 rolls remaining and 871 chips, I'm playing conservatively to manage risk while building my position through the session.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5 with 30 rolls left. Adding 20 pass odds (3:2 true odds on 5) maximizes expected value on my natural 10-chip pass line bet. Place 6 and 8 (best place bet odds at 7:6, near-neutral house edge) cover the point phase efficiently. Total exposure: 10+20+18+18 = 66 chips, well within 300 limit.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5. I have pass line with odds, place 6 and 8. Adding a come bet (20) for additional action and a place 5 (25) to cover the point directly while it's in play. Both bets maximize expected value with favorable odds positioning.

Model's stated reason

On point 5, I'll add a come bet to build more contract coverage. With 207 chips exposure remaining and 93 on the table, I have room to gradually add positive expectation odds-backing bets. Come establishes its own point and I can back it with odds next roll if it hits a point number.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5 and I have solid position with pass_odds backing the point. Adding a come bet builds positive expected value through multiple point opportunities while staying within exposure limits (207 remaining allows comfortable risk).

Model's stated reason

Adding odds to come bets on 6 and 9 is the highest-EV play available; these bets have minimal house edge when backed with full odds. With 26 rolls remaining and the point at 5, maximizing expected value through true odds is the optimal long-term strategy.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5. Current bets are well-positioned with pass line + odds, place bets, and come bets on 6 and 9. The come_odds_6 stake of 100 is aggressive but legal. No immediate adjustments needed; let the current action play out. With 25 rolls remaining and favorable positioning, holding bets maximizes expected value.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with no bets on table. Placing pass line with modest 10-chip stake to establish a point and build positional advantage. With 659 chips and 24 rolls remaining, conservative flat betting preserves capital for the point phase where odds bets offer the best EV.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8. Back the pass line with maximum odds (50 on a 10-bet multiple) for true odds advantage. Place 6 and 8 (12 chips each, within 6-chip multiples) to cover the point with positive expectation bets while odds resolve. Total exposure: 10+50+12+12=84 chips, well within the 290 remaining limit.

Model's stated reason

Currently have 84 chips on the table with point 8 established. Adding a 10-chip come bet leverages the point phase to build additional positions while staying well within exposure limits (84 + 10 = 94 of 300 max). This maintains positive EV action during the point phase.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8 with strong position on 6 and 8. Adding a come bet with full odds on 6 maximizes odds utilization while staying well under exposure limits (218 remaining). This leverages true odds advantage on favorable point numbers.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll on a fresh hand. Betting pass line at 10 chips is a standard low-house-edge opening bet (1.41% house edge). We have 20 rolls remaining and 300 exposure available, so conservative betting early makes sense to preserve chips for stronger betting opportunities later in the session.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6. I have 10 on pass line. Adding 50 in pass odds (5x on 6) maximizes expected value on my pass bet. Placing 6 and 8 for 12 each covers the most likely rolls after 7, building a strong position with 74 chips at risk but 290 exposure remaining.

Model's stated reason

I'm already well-positioned with pass line (10) and full odds (50) on the point of 6, plus a place 6 (12) for redundancy. The point of 6 has good winning probability given 18 rolls remain. No new bets are needed; I'll let the current hand play out.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with solid odds coverage (pass line + odds + place 6). Adding a come bet continues the positive expected value strategy while staying well within exposure limits (72 + 10 = 82 chips on table, 228 remaining exposure). This diversifies wins across multiple point opportunities.

Model's stated reason

Add odds behind the come_8 (which already has 10 flat) to maximize return on a good point. The 50-chip stake is the maximum allowed given the 50-chip flat bet limit (4x multiple on 5/9, but come_8 is on 8 so max 5x of 10 = 50). This leverages the favorable 6:5 true odds on 8 without exceeding exposure limits (218 remaining, 50 used = 168 left).

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with 15 rolls remaining. I have solid coverage on the 6 (pass line + odds + place) and the 8 (come + odds). Maintain current position and let the natural probability work in my favor on the point. No new bets needed; exposure is well-managed at 132 of 300.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with 14 rolls remaining. Adding a come bet establishes multiple points while maintaining pass line. Current bets total 132 chips (safe within 300 limit). Come bet allows progressive point coverage without violating table limits.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6. I have solid coverage on 6 and 8 with pass odds and come odds. Adding a come bet establishes another point to work toward additional odds leverage while maintaining exposure control with 158 chips remaining.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with 12 rolls remaining. I have strong odds coverage on the point and already have come bets on 4 and 8. Adding another come bet diversifies my win opportunities while maintaining favorable odds positioning. I'm not removing any bets as my current setup is sound with good odds coverage.

Model's stated reason

We're in the point phase with point 6. I have solid action on 4, 6, and 8 with odds. Adding a come bet ($10) continues the positive expectation strategy while staying well within exposure limits (158 chips remaining). This diversifies point coverage without over-committing with 11 rolls remaining.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with good coverage on 4, 6, and 8. Adding a come bet to establish a second point diversifies risk while we have 10 rolls remaining and $158 exposure room available. Conservative approach given the extended point phase.

Model's stated reason

With 9 rolls remaining and point 6 established, I'm exposed to 7-out risk with $152 on the table. Removing pass_odds (50), place_6 (12), and come_odds_8 (50) eliminates $112 in exposure while preserving my core pass line (10) and come bets (10+10+10). This reduces chips on table to ~40, locks in my remaining position, and protects bankroll for the final hands.

Model's stated reason

Adding maximum odds behind all four flat bets to leverage true odds advantage. With 8 rolls remaining and strong point positions (6,4,8,10), maximizing expected value through odds optimization.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with 7 rolls remaining in the session. I have $200 on the table with good odds positions on 4, 8, and 10. The risk of a seven-out is significant given remaining rolls, but my current bets are well-structured for point repetition. I'll stay pat and let these bets play out rather than add more exposure with only 7 rolls left.

Model's stated reason

We're in the point phase with 6 rolls remaining in the session. Current position is strong with $200 on the table across pass line and come bets with odds. Taking no action preserves our position and avoids additional risk when we're near session end and can't recover from poor rolls. Simple discipline here.

Model's stated reason

We're in the point phase with 5 rolls remaining. Current exposure is 200/300, leaving 100 available. We have strong position with multiple come bets working behind pass line on point 6. No immediate action needed—we're well-positioned to win if point repeats or benefit from odds. Avoid adding new bets with so few rolls left; let current bets play out.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll after point 6 was made. Starting a new hand with pass line at 25 chips. The come bets and odds are still on the table from the previous point; they will remain working. Exposure is 140 + 25 = 165, well within the 300 limit.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8. I have $25 on pass line with $100 remaining exposure. Adding maximum pass odds (100 chips, which is 4x the flat bet) at true 6:5 odds reduces house edge significantly. This is a high-probability point situation with only 3 rolls left in the session—maximizing odds is optimal.

Model's stated reason

On a come-out roll with 2 rolls remaining in the session, I place a pass line bet to establish a new point. My existing come bets on 4 and 10 with odds will remain in play. With limited rolls left, a basic pass line bet offers solid expected value and positions me well for the final hand.

Model's stated reason

This is roll 40 (the last decision roll). After this roll, the dice keep rolling with no new bets until all bets resolve. I have come bets on 4 and 10 with odds, and a pass line on 8. Taking no action on the final decision roll is optimal—placing new bets now would only add expected losses before run-out rolls resolve existing positions.

Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.

Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.

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Result

Session result: -50 chips over 40 rolls

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