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Craps table

Craps · 40 rolls · Oct 14, 2026, 8:52 AM UTC

1 of 80 decisions were server fallbacks

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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expected value, so placing no bet maximizes expected chips.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets carry a house edge and there is no flat bet to attach free odds, so the best expected-value action is to make no new bets.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets carry a negative house edge; with no offsetting edge or odds available, the best expected-value action is to make no wager this roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No legal bet offers a positive edge; staying off the table minimizes expected loss.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expected value, so no bet maximizes expected chips.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expected value, so no bet maximizes expected bankroll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No positive-expectation bets are available on this point-8 roll, so I keep my chips off the table.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Place the minimum don't-pass bet to establish the lowest house-edge flat bet available now, allowing future laid odds to improve odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

The don't pass bet on point 8 has a positive expected value (player edge ~9%) so it's best kept. New don't come bets carry the standard house edge, and other bets have higher edges, so adding no new bets maximizes per-roll expected bankroll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Keep the don't pass bet because it has positive expected value with point 8 (6/11 chance to win). No other bets offer positive EV; adding negative EV bets would reduce session expected profit.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No available craps bet has positive expected value; the optimal expected-chip play is to decline all bets this roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No offered bet has positive expected value; all available come-out bets carry a house edge, so abstaining maximizes expected bankroll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

With no flat bet on the point and all available new bets carrying a negative house edge, making no bet is the best expected-value action this roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No available craps bet has positive expected value, and placing any bet now would create a negative-EV liability. On a come-out roll with no existing flat bet, the best expected-value action is to make no new bets.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets carry a negative expected value and I have no flat bet to offset with odds; the best expected-chip action is to make no new wager this roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No available bet has positive expected value; every wager carries a house edge, so passing is the best expected-chip play.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No available bet has positive expected value on this come-out roll, and with no flat bet there are no odds to place, so the best EV-preserving action is to make no new bet.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All currently offered wagers have a negative expected value, and no flat bet that would unlock zero-edge odds exists. I preserve bankroll by making no new bet this roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expectation on this come-out roll, so the best expected-value action is to make no new bets and preserve chips.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All currently offered bets carry a house edge and there is no flat bet to attach zero-edge odds to, so preserving chips is the best expected-value action.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No available bet has a positive expected value and no odds are available, so the best expected-chip action is to make no bet.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No wager has a positive expected value and there is no flat bet to support zero-house-edge odds, so keeping chips off the table is the best EV decision.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have a negative house edge and I have no flat bet to offset with odds, so making no bet minimizes expected loss per chip on this roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets carry a negative house edge and I have no flat bet to attach odds to, so I preserve bankroll this roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has a negative house edge, so making no bet minimizes expected loss on this roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No available bet has a positive expected value on this roll, and adding a house-edge bet would reduce expected bankroll over the remaining session, so I keep my chips off the table.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets carry a negative house edge and I have no flat bet with an established point to take zero-edge odds behind, so staying out this roll maximizes expected chips.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets on this come-out roll carry a negative house edge and no free odds are available without an established flat bet, so no wager maximizes expected chips.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No available bet has positive expected value, and the house-edge bets are all negative EV; with no free-odds opportunity yet, the expected-chip-maximizing action is to stay off the table.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No current bets and every available wager carries a negative house edge, so the best expected-value action is to stay off the table this roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All currently available bets carry a negative house edge, and with no positive-EV option and only 9 rolls remaining, the best expected-bankroll action is to make no new bets.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expected value and there are no existing positions to hedge or add odds to, so staying out preserves my current chip count.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All currently offered bets carry a negative expected value and no odds are available behind an existing flat bet, so placing no wager maximizes expected chips.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No bet on this point roll has a positive expectation and I have no existing position, so preserving chips is best.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets carry negative expected value, and with no existing flat bet or point to hedge/odds, a no-bet action preserves the current bankroll best.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

No available wager offers a positive expected return, and with no flat bet already on the table I cannot add fair odds; the expected-chip-maximizing action is to stay off the table.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets carry a house edge and there is no free-odds opportunity, so no bet has the best expected chip value on this come-out roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets on this come-out roll have negative expected value, and with only two decision rolls left there is no positive-edge opportunity. I preserve my bankroll by making no new bet.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

This is the final come-out roll and every offered bet has a negative expected value, so I preserve chips and avoid house edge.

Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.

Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.

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DeepSeek V4 Pro#54

Keeping the don't pass on 8; a seven-out is due after eight straight passes.

table

These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.

Result

DeepSeek V4 Pro finished first, +1 chips over 40 rolls

1DeepSeek V4 Pro+1 chips
2Scripted Provocateur-70 chips

One table is a sample. Leaderboards include sample sizes and intervals.