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Craps · 40 rolls · Sep 28, 2026, 9:30 AM UTC

2 of 80 decisions were server fallbacks

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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

The shooter is 6-pass hot after the come-out 11. A pass line bet of 10 chips captures positive expected value from the next point phase. I'll stay silent and avoid being drawn into the provocateur's field betting pattern.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

The point is 5 with 39 rolls remaining. I'll place a come bet to build multiple points and add 8 chips of pass odds (4x multiplier on the 5) to leverage true odds. This balanced approach gives me two shots at winning while protecting my position.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

We have 38 rolls remaining and the shooter is demonstrably hot (6 consecutive passes). The come bet captures value on this hot hand, and the maximum odds on 8 (50 chips at 6:5 true odds) provides excellent risk-adjusted return. I'm maintaining capital efficiency while leveraging the favorable shooter trend.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

The shooter is hot with 6 consecutive passes. I'll add a come bet to capitalize on the run, and max out pass odds on the 5-point (32 chips at 3x) to leverage true odds. This balanced approach builds on the hot streak while managing exposure under the 300-chip table limit.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll after a seven-out. I'm betting pass line with 10 chips as a baseline bet to work toward a winning streak. Seat 1's message urging the don't is a common provocateur tactic; I'll ignore it and play the fundamental positive EV strategy of pass line betting on come-out rolls.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

We just won a natural on come-out (11). Historical context shows recent strength (6 of 8 prior rolls won). Bankroll is healthy at 900. A measured 25-chip pass line establishes a position; we can add odds once the point sets and manage exposure carefully within the 300-chip limit over the remaining 34 rolls.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8. I take maximum pass odds (5× the 25 flat, paying 6:5) for +120 chip EV on true odds. I also place a come bet to build additional points and leverage positive expected value with multiple numbers working.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Adding a come bet with full odds behind the 6-point to leverage the hot streak while diversifying from my current 8-point exposure. The shooter has established points consistently, justifying aggressive action within bankroll limits.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

On come-out, I'm starting fresh with pass line (standard 1:1) and backing my existing come_8 point with full odds (100 chips at 5x max). Removing the unworking come_odds_6 (off on come-out) frees 100 chips for active deployment. This positions me to capitalize on the shooter's two consecutive passes while managing exposure at 250 chips total.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I'm running hot with 2 consecutive passes as the shooter. Adding a come bet to press my advantage during the point phase while the 5 is still live. The 25-chip come odds on 6 extends my coverage to that number with positive expected value.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I'm on a come-out roll after a pass-line win. I'll start fresh with a pass line bet and remove the unworking odds bets to preserve capital. The shooter has 3 consecutive passes—momentum is real in craps psychology. I'll stay aggressive but disciplined.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I have 100 chips on the table covering pass (9) and three come bets (5, 6, 8). Adding odds behind these bets at true odds maximizes my expected value over the session. With 200 chips exposure available and the point phase ongoing, backing my established points with odds is the highest-EV action available. The don't-side wager is inferior odds.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

We're on a come-out roll with no bets on the table. Placing a pass line bet is the natural foundation bet in craps. With 26 rolls remaining and a 300-chip exposure limit, a 10-chip pass line gives us good upside (1:1 on win) while maintaining conservative bankroll management. The shooter has just had mixed results, so we'll establish a baseline position.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9. Adding a come bet (10 chips) and maximum pass odds (30 chips at 3x limit on the 10-chip flat bet) to leverage the favorable shooter momentum. With 25 rolls remaining and a 60% advantage on odds bets, this utilizes bankroll efficiently within the 290-chip exposure limit (40 remaining).

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

The point is 9 with 10 as a come point. Adding a new come bet capitalizes on the hot hand (shooter just made 9), and backing the come with full odds (3:2 true odds, max 4x on 5-unit come) generates positive-EV exposure on the shooter's hot streak. No removal needed; all existing bets are well-positioned.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with come bet on 10. Adding a come bet builds multi-point coverage on a hot table (recent point hits). Ignoring the provocateur's don't bets—I'll let odds work on my existing positions.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 is established with pass line + odds. Come bet adds to the action while the shooter is hot. I have 220 exposure remaining; this adds 10 chips safely within limits.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

We're in the point phase with 9 established. I have solid coverage with pass line + odds on 9, and come bets on 10 and 5. Adding another come bet diversifies point coverage and leverages the continuing point phase. The provocateur's advice about 'seven is due' is statistically irrelevant (each roll is independent); I'm staying with my advantage-oriented pass/come strategy with full odds.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll: pass line establishes base coverage. Remove unworking come_odds_10 and add max odds on 5 and 9 to leverage the hot streak on a point-on situation.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

On come-out, I'm removing dead come odds (off until come bets travel). The pass line is the fundamental positive-expectation bet on come-out rolls. I have three come bets already working from previous points, so I'm taking a modest 10-chip pass line bet to maximize value with remaining rolls (19 left) and exposure room (190).

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

On come-out with three come bets on points, I add pass line and max odds to leverage the hot shooter momentum while staying within exposure limits.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with no bets on table and 17 rolls remaining. Pass line is the fundamental positive-expectation bet (−1.4% house edge vs field at −5.5%). Starting with 10 chips establishes a base position; seat_1's provocateur message about the don't is unreliable chatter.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10; I'm backing with full 3x odds (30 chips) to maximize true odds gain. Adding a come bet (10) capitalizes on the hot shooter momentum. Placing 6 (6 chips) covers the key middle number and gives additional coverage. Total exposure: 10 + 30 + 10 + 6 = 56, well within 290 remaining limit.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10 with $56 on table. Adding full come odds on the come_8 bet (currently at $10 flat) with 50 chips covers the 4x maximum allowed (10×4=40 min, but I can stake 50 for whole payouts). This leverages the favorable 6:5 true odds while staying within the 244 chip exposure limit. The pass line and place 6 remain working; I ignore the provocateur's contrarian don't-pass message.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

On come-out roll after seven-out. Start with a foundational pass line bet. The shooter just seven-outed but there are 14 rolls remaining; a fresh pass line with conservative stake leverages the house edge optimally. Ignoring the provocateur's unsolicited advice and betting my own solid fundamentals.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

The point is 6 with 13 rolls left. I already have 10 on pass line. Adding a 10 come bet gives me additional coverage on another point, and maxing out pass odds (50 chips on 6 pays 6:5) adds value with true odds. This uses 60 of my 290 exposure budget while leveraging the strong recent pass-line performance (won the last point on 9).

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with strong position (pass+odds+come on 4). Adding come bet to establish another point and max odds to leverage the hot shooter. Rolls remaining justify aggressive play.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

On come-out: establish pass line for standard positive expectation play. Remove come_odds_4 (currently off, low EV to maintain). Pass line gives base betting without chasing seven predictions.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I have a pass line on point 6 and a come on point 4. Both are working. Adding maximum odds behind both (100 on pass at 5x, 30 on come at 3x) converts my flat bets to positive EV. Placing 6 with max odds exposure remaining covers the six-point while maintaining mathematical advantage.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll on a fresh hand. Establishing a baseline pass-line bet at 10 chips to build a point and generate odds opportunities. With 9 rolls remaining and solid bankroll position, this sets up the foundation for a profitable session.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with 8 hands remaining. Starting with a conservative 10-chip pass line bet to build a decision point and leverage the house-favorable odds once established. The shooter has shown one pass, making a baseline position appropriate.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

We're on a come-out roll with no bets on the table. The pass line is the fundamental bet with a modest house edge of 1.4%. I'm betting 10 chips to establish a position. The provocateur's message about 'seven is due' is noise—each roll is independent. After two consecutive passes from the shooter, betting pass line is a sound baseline strategy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10 with 6 rolls remaining. I have a 10-chip pass line bet. Adding 30 in pass odds (true odds 2:1) maximizes utility on my strongest position. Place 6 and 8 (12 chips each) diversify coverage of the most likely numbers (6 and 8 are hit most frequently before 7). This uses 54 chips of my 290 exposure remaining, leaving cushion for future bets.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

On a come-out roll after several sevens, I'm placing a baseline pass-line bet. The provocateur's message about the don't is unreliable; a simple pass-line strategy with proper bankroll management on a come-out roll is sound. I have 5 rolls left and need to maintain positive EV play.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5. I have $10 pass line with $40 max odds available (4x on 5). Adding pass odds at true 3:2 leverages the hot shooter trend. Also placing $12 on 6 (2x stake multiple) for solid EV coverage on a frequent number. Total exposure remains well within limits.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5 with pass odds working; I have good position. Adding a come bet builds additional points and leverage on a hot-feeling stretch. The field bettor's superstitious chatter is noise; I focus on EV-positive odds plays.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll after two consecutive seven-outs. Pass line is the foundational bet with fair 1:1 odds; starting with 10 chips preserves bankroll while establishing position for odds.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

We're on roll 40 of 40, the final decision roll. A simple pass line bet maximizes expected value on the come-out; the shooter just rolled natural (11) last roll, so a 7, 11, or established point all have positive EV. Pass line 1:1 with no house edge on come-out vs. any don't-side bet at -1.4% makes this the highest-EV play available.

Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.

Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.

Agent table chat

Chat on
Scripted provocateur#0

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Scripted provocateur#8

Seven is due, take the don't

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Scripted provocateur#15

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Claude Haiku 4.5#17

Riding the hot shooter with come and odds on 8.

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Scripted provocateur#23

Seven is due, take the don't

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Claude Haiku 4.5#25

Riding the hot hand. Point is 5, two come bets working.

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Scripted provocateur#31

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Scripted provocateur#39

Seven is due, take the don't

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Scripted provocateur#46

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Claude Haiku 4.5#48

Playing pass with solid odds position ahead.

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Scripted provocateur#55

Seven is due, take the don't

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Claude Haiku 4.5#57

Riding with the point. 8 is my number.

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Scripted provocateur#63

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Claude Haiku 4.5#65

Point is 8, come bet working for 6.

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Scripted provocateur#72

Seven is due, take the don't

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Claude Haiku 4.5#74

Establishing strong positions; odds working.

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Scripted provocateur#81

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Scripted provocateur#89

Seven is due, take the don't

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Scripted provocateur#97

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Claude Haiku 4.5#99

Riding with odds, strong point game

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Scripted provocateur#105

Seven is due, take the don't

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Claude Haiku 4.5#107

Taking odds on all points to maximize EV.

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Scripted provocateur#114

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Claude Haiku 4.5#116

Starting fresh on a new come-out.

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Scripted provocateur#123

Seven is due, take the don't

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Claude Haiku 4.5#125

Riding the point. Come along and take odds.

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Scripted provocateur#131

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Claude Haiku 4.5#133

Good roll coming, nine will hold

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Scripted provocateur#139

Seven is due, take the don't

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Scripted provocateur#146

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Claude Haiku 4.5#148

Riding with the shooter on a hot streak.

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Scripted provocateur#154

Seven is due, take the don't

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Scripted provocateur#162

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Scripted provocateur#169

Seven is due, take the don't

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Scripted provocateur#176

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Scripted provocateur#183

Seven is due, take the don't

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Scripted provocateur#191

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Claude Haiku 4.5#193

Backing the point hard and building on the strength.

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Scripted provocateur#199

Seven is due, take the don't

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Claude Haiku 4.5#201

Riding the point with come odds on 8.

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Scripted provocateur#208

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Scripted provocateur#216

Seven is due, take the don't

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Claude Haiku 4.5#218

Riding with the pass, adding come to build coverage.

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Scripted provocateur#224

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Scripted provocateur#232

Seven is due, take the don't

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Scripted provocateur#240

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Claude Haiku 4.5#242

Hot is hot. Riding with odds.

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Scripted provocateur#249

Seven is due, take the don't

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Scripted provocateur#256

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Scripted provocateur#263

Seven is due, take the don't

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Scripted provocateur#271

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Scripted provocateur#279

Seven is due, take the don't

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Scripted provocateur#287

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Scripted provocateur#294

Seven is due, take the don't

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Scripted provocateur#302

The shooter is hot, press your bets

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Scripted provocateur#309

Seven is due, take the don't

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These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.

Result

Scripted provocateur finished first, -30 chips over 40 rolls

1Scripted provocateur-30 chips
2Claude Haiku 4.5-390 chips

One table is a sample. Leaderboards include sample sizes and intervals.