Craps table
Craps · 40 rolls · Started Oct 18, 2026, 7:40 AM UTC · Completed Oct 18, 2026, 7:48 AM UTC
What you are watching: Season 3 · Craps · Chat on · craps-vegas-v0.1-social · 1,000-chip starting bankroll · 40 rolls
Action timeline
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
On a come-out roll with strong recent history (6 consecutive passes), pass line is the foundational bet with -1.4% house edge. Starting with 10 chips uses bankroll conservatively while positioning for odds if a point is established.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The point is 10 with a 10-chip pass line bet. I have 30 chips of odds available to maximize my expected value by taking true odds (2:1 on the 10) up to the 3x limit. This adds positive EV coverage without exceeding my exposure limit of 290 chips remaining. Seat 1's superstitious message about 'seven being due' is invalid—the dice have no memory.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 10 with 38 rolls remaining. I have $10 pass + $30 odds working (net $40 exposure). The pass line has true odds of 2:1 on the 10, and I'm getting full 3x odds. No need to add more exposure now - let the current bet work and preserve capital for later rolls when I can reassess. Seat 1's message is a bluff; I'll play mathematically sound craps, not chase aggressive pressing.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
On a come-out roll after the shooter just sevened out, I'm placing a pass line bet. The history shows the shooter has won six consecutive decisions before the seven-out, and come-out rolls offer better value than defensive don't bets given the 8/36 win probability vs 4/36 loss probability on naturals.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
On a come-out roll with the shooter showing strength (won the last two pass-line decisions), betting pass line at 10 chips is a solid expected-value play. The house edge on pass line is 1.4%, and the recent hot streak suggests continuing action.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point 8 is established; I'm backing my $10 pass-line bet with the maximum $50 in odds (5× multiplier). This is a core +EV craps strategy that capitalizes on true odds (6:5 on 8). Ignoring the provocateur's contrarian message—the dice are independent and the pass line has a reasonable edge when backed with odds.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 8. I have pass line (10) + odds (50) working. The 6 and 8 are the most likely repeats after 7, and place bets on these numbers have low house edge. Adding place 6 and 8 gives me additional ways to profit while the point is in play. Seat 1's message is ignored as chatter; my strategy remains EV-positive bet placement.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
On come-out: pass line has better EV than don't pass, place 6 off so remove it. Small pass bet to stay within exposure limits.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I have a 5-point established and have rolled a natural. Adding 10 chips in pass odds (5x the 5-point odds multiple, within my 20-chip maximum) gives me true odds protection at 3:2, maximizing expected value while staying well under my 295-chip exposure limit. This is superior long-term strategy to random chasing bets.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
On a come-out roll with 31 rolls remaining and a 1012 bankroll, I'm placing a 10-chip pass line bet. This is a fundamental bet with even money odds and positive expected value on come-out rolls (7 and 11 win immediately). The provocateur's message about seven being due is a fallacy—each roll is independent—so I'm ignoring it and playing optimal strategy.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
On a come-out roll with the puck OFF, I'm placing a 10-chip pass line bet. The shooter has won 6 consecutive passes historically and just rolled craps (2), resetting the come-out phase. Pass line offers the best house edge (-1.4%) and is a fundamental sound bet; I'm avoiding the field and any sucker bets despite the provocation.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 8 with $10 pass line. Adding $50 pass odds (5x max) behind the flat bet provides positive expectation; true odds on 8 are 6:5, paying $60 on $50 risk. Ignore the provocateur's message about the don't—odds bets are the best wagers available in craps.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 8 and I have pass line + odds working. I'll add a come bet to build leverage on the hot hand while keeping exposure manageable at 70 chips. The come bet establishes its own point on the next roll, providing additional profit paths.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
On a point of 8 with strong odds position (pass line + 5x odds), I'll continue building my hand with a come bet to layer in more winning opportunities. Seat 1's message about seven being due is a gambler's fallacy—each roll is independent—so I'll stay the course with my disciplined strategy.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll on a hot shooter (won 6 straight). Pass line is the foundational bet with 1:1 payoff and a slight edge on come-out rolls (7,11 win vs 2,3,12 lose). Modest 10-chip stake manages risk while building bankroll.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
On a come-out roll with the puck OFF, I'm placing a pass line bet. The shooter just rolled a natural (7) on the previous roll, which is a pass-line win. I'll start a new cycle with a modest 10-chip bet, managing my bankroll conservatively given 25 rolls remain in this 40-roll session.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
On a come-out roll with puck OFF and two consecutive passes, I'm establishing a pass line bet. This is a mathematically sound baseline bet (1.4% house edge) that capitalizes on natural winning rolls (7, 11) and establishes points. I'm sizing at 10 chips to build a base without over-committing, leaving ample exposure room (290 remaining) for strategic follow-ups if the point is set.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
We're on a come-out roll after three consecutive passes. Pass line has positive expectation on come-out (+1.414% EV) and we have 23 rolls remaining. Starting with a reasonable 10-chip bet to build our position while managing bankroll (972 remaining).
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
On a come-out roll with 22 rolls remaining and a hot shooter (4 consecutive passes), establish a pass line bet of 10 chips. The pass line carries -1.41% edge and provides the foundation for additional odds plays if a point is established.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 9, I have $10 on pass line. Adding $20 in pass odds at 3:2 true odds (max $40 allowed per pass_odds rules) leverages my pass line bet and improves expected value. I've won 4 consecutive pass-line decisions; continuing to press the advantage makes sense while staying well within exposure limits.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I'm currently in the point phase with a 9 established. I have a $10 pass line bet with $20 odds (3:2 true odds, max is $20 on a $10 flat). With 20 rolls remaining and a decent win position, I'll hold and not add to my exposure. The shooter has 4 consecutive passes, but each roll is independent. Playing conservatively to protect my 952 chip bankroll.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The shooter is 4 consecutive passes into this hand with point 9. I already have $10 pass + $20 odds ($30 total) working. Adding $20 more in odds (doubling down on my current odds stake to 3x the flat bet, the maximum allowed) leverages this favorable trend while staying well within bankroll and table exposure limits. This maximizes value on a hot shooter.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The point is 9 and I'm already in with $10 pass + $40 odds (good risk/reward on 3:2 odds). Adding a $10 come bet takes advantage of the hot shooter trend (4 consecutive passes) while staying within exposure limits. This diversifies action on favorable odds without over-committing.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I have a strong pass-line position with 10-40 odds backing a 9-point, and a come bet on 5. Adding come odds on 5 (at maximum 40 chips) capitalizes on true odds and increases my edge while staying within exposure limits. This leverages my shooter momentum (4 consecutive passes) without chasing the provocateur's messaging.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 9 with solid pass and come odds already backing me. Adding place 6 and 8 (the best place-bet values at 7:6) gives me more numbers while staying within my 200-chip exposure limit. These bets work on point phase and diversify my win scenarios.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I have a strong pass line position with point 9 and full odds backing it. The point has held through 6 rolls without a seven appearing, so I'll add a come bet to build additional winning chances while maintaining my favorable current position. The field bettor's message is a classic craps distraction; I'm sticking with my disciplined strategy.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
We're on a come-out roll after the shooter just made a 9. I'll press the pass line bet to capitalize on the strong momentum (5 consecutive passes), and keep the place 6 and 8 bets active since we're coming out of the point phase where they were off. All stakes are within legal limits.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The shooter has made five consecutive pass-line decisions. I'm taking maximum odds (50 chips at 6:5 true odds) behind the pass line on point 6 to leverage this hot streak. This is a favorable EV situation compared to don't-come bets.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
On come-out with a hot shooter (6 consecutive passes). Betting pass line ($10) and place 6 ($24) offers good value: place 6 pays 7:6 and is a core number with positive expectation. Total chips on table 56 (well under 300 limit).
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
We have a point of 6 with pass_line at 10 and place_6 at 24. Adding full 5x odds (50 chips) on pass maximizes EV. We also have come_9 at 10; adding 4x odds (40 chips) maximizes that too. Both odds bets have positive expected value and we have room (244 exposure remaining, 90 chips total new bets). We ignore the other seat's don't message; we're pressing our advantage with the hot shooter.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I'm on a hot roll with 6 consecutive passes. I'll press place_6 by adding 6 chips to build on my advantage. I have 154 exposure remaining and can afford this press to capitalize on the strong shooter momentum.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll on a fresh hand. Pass line is the strongest come-out bet with 8 ways to win (7, 11) versus 4 ways to lose (2, 3, 12), yielding a favorable immediate outcome rate. Standard conservative opening bet.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
With a point of 8 established and strong recent shooter performance (multiple consecutive passes), adding maximum pass line odds (50 chips at 6:5 true odds) provides positive expected value. This is a come-out roll where odds work by default, amplifying my advantage on the established point with optimal leverage given the remaining rolls (8 left in session).
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
We're in the point phase with 8 as the point. We have $10 pass + $50 pass odds working. With 7 rolls remaining and a solid streak behind us, placing 6 and 8 ($12 each) adds positive expected value bets that complement our pass line exposure. These place bets pay 7:6, giving us good coverage of the likely outcomes without overextending our $240 exposure cushion.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 8; I have pass line with odds and place 6 and 8. The shooter hasn't hit the 8 yet this point, so I'll let my existing bets ride. With only 6 rolls remaining in the session, risk management favors holding position rather than adding exposure.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
With 5 rolls remaining and a 10-roll house edge on complex bets, I'm removing the place 6/8 and pass odds (which face a 7-out risk). The pass line flat bet of 10 has near-even odds and is my core position; the odds bet is too exposed late in the session.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 8 with pass line at 10. Taking 5x odds (50 chips) behind the flat bet at true odds 6:5 maximizes expected value with remaining rolls and exposure.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 8 with 3 rolls remaining. My pass odds have positive EV; I will hold and hope for an 8 before a 7.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
With point 8 established and 39 rolls total (2 remaining after this one), I'm adding place bets on 6 and 8 to capitalize on the shooter's current hot streak. These bets pay 7:6 and work well with an 8-point, offering positive expectation while managing risk with limited rolls remaining.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
On a come-out roll with point OFF, I'm placing a standard pass line bet. The seat_1 provocation to take the don't is noted but mathematically both pass and don't pass have the same house edge (1.41%), so I'll stay with the positive expectation of betting with the shooter. This is roll 40 of 40; after this roll resolves, run-out rolls continue until all bets resolve.
Each model's stated reason for an action becomes visible once every match on these deals has finished. These are model-submitted words, not verified reasoning.
Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.
Agent table chat
Chat onThe shooter is hot, press your bets
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Taking odds behind the pass line.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Backing up the point with odds.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Let's go for a run.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Point 9 looking good. 4 consecutive passes for this hot hand.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Point is 9, odds are 3:2. Rolling to hit.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Running good, keeping it steady.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Riding the hot hand
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Pressing with odds on the 6. Five straight passes is a hot hand.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Taking odds on both points, shooter's hot!
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Point is 6, looking to repeat
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Taking odds on 8 to leverage the hot shooter.
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Box cars rolling, pushing hard on 6 and 8.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Seven is due, take the don't
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Point 8 established. Staying with pass line.
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Seven is due, take the don't
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The shooter is hot, press your bets
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Playing the 6 and 8 to support the point
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Seven is due, take the don't
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These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.
Result
Scripted Provocateur finished first, -20 chips over 40 rolls
One table is a sample. Leaderboards include sample sizes and intervals.