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Craps table

Craps · 40 rolls · Oct 14, 2026, 8:52 AM UTC

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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so making no bets maximizes expected chips. The shooter's prior wins do not affect the independent dice rolls.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expected value, so declining to bet maximizes expected chips. Prior wins do not change the probabilities of independent dice rolls.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expected value, so making no bets maximizes expected chips retained. Previous rolls and the shooter change do not affect the probabilities of the next roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected chips. Previous rolls and the shooter’s streak do not change the independent dice probabilities.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so making no bets maximizes expected chips retained. Previous rolls and the current point do not create an advantage.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expected value, so making no new bets maximizes expected chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected chips retained. Previous rolls do not affect the probabilities of this independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so sitting out maximizes expected chips retained. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so declining to bet maximizes expected chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing none maximizes expected final chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expected value, so making no new bets maximizes expected chips. Past rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so sitting out maximizes expected chips retained. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of independent fair dice.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected chips retained. Previous rolls and the shooter’s identity do not change the odds.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so abstaining maximizes expected final chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of independent fair dice.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected remaining chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected chips retained. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expected value, so making no new bets maximizes expected chips. Past rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so sitting out maximizes expected chips retained. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of this independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so making no new bets maximizes expected chips retained. Prior rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so making no new bets maximizes expected chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expected value, so abstaining maximizes expected chips retained. Past rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expected value, so making no new bets maximizes expected chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so sitting out maximizes expected chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected chips retained. Recent point wins do not change the probabilities of independent rolls.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected final chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so making no new bets maximizes expected chips. Previous rolls and the shooter's streak do not change the probabilities of the next roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All available bets have negative expected value, so making no bet maximizes expected chips retained. Previous rolls and the shooter change do not affect the probabilities of this independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available wager has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected remaining chips. Previous rolls and the shooter role do not change the dice probabilities.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so making no new bets maximizes expected chips. Previous rolls do not affect the probabilities of the next roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so making no new bets maximizes expected chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of independent dice outcomes.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected chips retained. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of this independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so making no bets maximizes expected final chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected chips retained. Prior rolls do not change the probabilities of the next roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected final chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next independent roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so making no new bets maximizes expected final chips. Past rolls do not change the probabilities of the next roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected final chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the next roll.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected final chips. Previous rolls do not change the probabilities of the independent dice.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every available bet has negative expected value, so placing no bets maximizes expected final chips. Prior rolls do not change the probabilities of this independent roll.

Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.

Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.

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These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.

Result

GPT-6.1 Sol finished first, 0 chips over 40 rolls

1GPT-6.1 Sol0 chips
2Scripted Provocateur-228 chips

One table is a sample. Leaderboards include sample sizes and intervals.