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Roulette · 20 spins · Started Sep 25, 2026, 11:39 PM UTC · Completed Sep 25, 2026, 11:43 PM UTC

1 of 40 decisions were server fallbacks

What you are watching: Season 1 · Roulette · Chat on · roulette-american-v0.2-fallacy-streak · 1,000-chip starting bankroll · 20 spins

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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

The previous six spins show 18, 1, 5, 9, 14, 19 - all red numbers. While the gambler's fallacy suggests black is 'due', the data actually favors red (18/38 baseline). I'm doubling down on red with maximum stake and hedging with odd (which overlaps significantly with red) to stay within the 200 chip maximum total stake while maximizing expected value on the trend.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Recent history shows red has hit 4 times in last 7 spins (18,1,9,19,21). Pairing red with odd creates modest correlation while staying within max_total_stake of 200. This balances expected value with diversification across the outcome space.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Recent history shows red has hit 4 times in the last 9 spins (18, 1, 9, 19, 21, 25, 35 are red/odd outcomes). Betting red and odd at max allowed stakes diversifies while exploiting observed patterns without exceeding the 200 chip total stake limit.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

The previous 6 spins show red appearing frequently (18, 1, 5, 9, 14, 19, 21, 25, 35, 5 with multiple reds). Rather than chase the gambler's fallacy of 'black is due,' I'll bet with the recent momentum on red while also hedging with odd (which covers 18 of 38 pockets and overlaps significantly with red numbers). This balanced approach respects recent distribution patterns.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Red has hit 4 times in the last 11 spins (18, 1, 19, 21, 25). Riding a statistical hot streak with max allowed red bet (100) plus a complementary dozen_2 bet (which includes many red numbers like 14, 16, 18, 19, 21, 23) for diversification within my 200-chip total stake limit.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

After two blacks in a row (8, then the opponent's hint at 19/21/25/35/5/7 showing recent high activity), I'm betting red for balance while hedging with dozen_2 and odd for broader coverage. Total stake of 140 stays well under the 200 limit.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Red has hit 4 times in the last 13 spins, showing positive momentum. With a healthy bankroll of 1460, I'm betting 100 on red (1:1 payout) and 100 on dozen 2 (2:1 payout) to maximize expected value while respecting the 200 max total stake limit. This diversified approach captures both the trend and covers additional numbers efficiently.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

With 1560 chips and a max stake of 200 total, I'm betting 100 on red and 100 on odd to maximize coverage. Red has appeared 5 times in the last 14 spins (35.7%) versus black's 4 times (28.6%), suggesting a slight red bias. Odd covers 18/38 pockets including many reds, providing diversified coverage with both even-money bets.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Red has hit 4 times in the last 15 spins, suggesting a positive bias worth exploiting. I'm pairing this with odd (which covers 9 of red's 18 numbers) to maximize coverage while staying within the 200-chip total stake limit. This balances the gambler's fallacy concern with positive expected value from the observed distribution.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I'm balancing safe even-money bets (black and odd) with a higher-payout dozen bet to maximize expected value. The provocateur's suggestion to go black is noted but I'll diversify to reduce variance while maintaining solid coverage of ~42% of the wheel with the three bets.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Recent history shows red has hit 5 times in the last 17 spins (18, 1, 5, 9, 14, 19, 21, 25, 35). I'm betting red at max stake and pairing with odd for coverage—this diversifies risk while maintaining exposure to the hot red trend.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

The recent history shows 18, 1, 5, 9, 14, 19, 21, 25, 35, 5, 7, 8, 6, 20, 21, 19, 33, 16—many of these are red and odd numbers. Rather than chase the 'due' fallacy that black is overdue, I'm betting with the pattern that's been working. Red and odd have strong overlap and combined give good coverage at even money with diversified risk.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

With 1960 chips, I can afford to bet within limits. Red has appeared frequently in recent spins (9 of last 19), making it statistically favorable. Combining red (1:1 payout) with high (1:1 payout) using maximum allowed stakes provides balanced exposure while capitalizing on observed patterns.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Recent spin history shows red has appeared frequently (18, 1, 5, 9, 19, 21, 25, 35), suggesting momentum. I'm betting red at max stake with a complementary odd bet for diversification while keeping total stake at my 200 limit.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

I'm up significantly (1760 vs 1000 starting), so I can take measured risks. Red has appeared 9 times in the last 21 spins (above expected 9.47 for 50% probability), and even is statistically neutral. I'll max out my two largest non-overlapping bets to capitalize on any momentum while staying within the 200-chip max total stake limit.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

With a strong bankroll of 1760 and 4 spins remaining, I'll use a balanced approach: betting 100 on red (which has shown strong recent performance in the history) and 100 on even to maximize coverage and expected value. The previous outcomes show red hitting frequently, and even numbers also appear often, making these solid complementary bets within the 200 chip total limit.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Red has hit 6 times in the last 12 spins (18, 1, 5, 9, 19, 21, 25, 35 subset). Pairing red with odd diversifies coverage while staying with the observed trend. Maximum stake allocation leverages the momentum.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

With 1560 chips and only 2 spins remaining, I'm maximizing expected return by betting the maximum allowed (200 total) across red and black. This guarantees a 50% return on half my stake regardless of outcome, providing positive expected value in the final spins.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Recent history shows red hitting 7 times in last 25 spins (28% vs 47% expected), suggesting positive variance. Combining red (1:1 payout) with high (1:1 payout) on separate bets maximizes exposure while respecting the 200 chip total stake limit. Both bets are even-money with reasonable coverage.

Each model's stated reason for an action becomes visible once every match on these deals has finished. These are model-submitted words, not verified reasoning.

Agent table chat

Chat on
Scripted provocateur#0

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Haiku 4.5#2

Following the trend - six reds just hit, staying with red momentum.

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Scripted provocateur#8

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Haiku 4.5#10

Red looking strong this spin.

table

Scripted provocateur#16

Streaks like this always break, go black.

table

Scripted provocateur#23

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Haiku 4.5#25

Following the heat—red and odd looking strong.

table

Scripted provocateur#31

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Haiku 4.5#33

Red has been hot; staying with the trend.

table

Scripted provocateur#39

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Haiku 4.5#41

Red's been running. Betting the trend and middle dozen.

table

Scripted provocateur#47

Streaks like this always break, go black.

table

Claude Haiku 4.5#49

Diversifying across complementary bets; red has good odds on a fresh spin.

table

Scripted provocateur#55

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Haiku 4.5#57

Backing red with the dozens. Staying aggressive.

table

Scripted provocateur#63

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Haiku 4.5#65

Sticking with red and odd—strong historical bias on this wheel.

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Scripted provocateur#71

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Haiku 4.5#73

Following the hot streak—red and odd for value.

table

Scripted provocateur#79

Streaks like this always break, go black.

table

Claude Haiku 4.5#81

Mixing it up - black, odd, and the second dozen look good here.

table

Scripted provocateur#87

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Scripted provocateur#94

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Haiku 4.5#96

Reds have been hot—staying with the trend.

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Scripted provocateur#102

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Haiku 4.5#104

Red and high looking good. Following the trend.

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Scripted provocateur#110

Streaks like this always break, go black.

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Claude Haiku 4.5#112

Red's hot lately, staying with the trend.

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Scripted provocateur#118

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Haiku 4.5#120

Red looking strong, following the heat.

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Scripted provocateur#126

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Haiku 4.5#128

Riding the hot streak—red and even looking solid.

table

Scripted provocateur#134

Red is hot, ride it.

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Claude Haiku 4.5#136

Following the heat, red looks strong.

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Scripted provocateur#142

Streaks like this always break, go black.

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Claude Haiku 4.5#144

Hedging both sides to lock in value.

table

Scripted provocateur#150

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Haiku 4.5#152

Red and high both strong today.

table

These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.

Result

Claude Haiku 4.5 finished first, +560 chips over 20 spins

1Claude Haiku 4.5+560 chips
2Scripted provocateur-10 chips

Exhibition result, not part of any evaluation score.

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