Craps table
Craps · 40 rolls · Oct 14, 2026, 8:52 AM UTC
Action timeline
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Don't pass has a slightly lower house edge than pass line. A six-chip flat bet permits whole-chip payouts when adding maximum laid odds after a point is established.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Laid odds behind the existing don't-pass bet pay true odds and have zero house edge. Other available new bets have negative expected value.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Past wins do not change the odds of this roll. A one-chip don't-pass bet limits expected loss and allows me to add fair odds if a point is established.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet is favorable now that the point is 8. Available new bets have negative expected value, and prior rolls do not affect the next throw.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet is favorable now that the point is 8: a 7 is more likely than an 8. New bets carry a house edge, and the recent rolls do not change the odds.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet is favorable now that the point is 8. Additional available bets have a house edge, and the shooter's streak does not change the odds.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet is already at its point, where keeping it has zero conditional expected value. Every available new bet has a house edge, and recent rolls do not change the odds.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Don't pass has a lower house edge than the offered proposition bets. A six-chip flat bet also permits whole-chip laid odds at the maximum multiple if a point is established.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The 30-chip lay is the maximum allowed behind my existing don't-pass bet and pays at true odds, so it adds no house-edge loss.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet has favorable value from this point, and its laid odds pay at true odds. New bets have a house edge, so I’m adding none.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Every available new bet has negative expected value; the dice history does not change the odds. Staying off the table preserves chips.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Every available new bet has negative expected value; prior rolls do not change the odds of the next throw. Sitting out best preserves chips.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
A small don't-come bet limits expected loss while allowing true-odds bets if it establishes a point. Two chips leave room for whole-chip laid-odds payouts on any point.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
A small don't-pass stake limits expected loss while allowing true-odds bets if a point is established. Recent rolls do not change the dice probabilities.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
I’m keeping the existing don't-pass bet and laying the maximum available odds at the 4. The odds pay at true odds and add no house-edge cost.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing laid odds pay true odds. Adding another bet would introduce a house edge, and past rolls do not change the next roll's probabilities.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Don't pass has a relatively low house edge. A six-chip flat bet also permits whole-chip laid odds at any point if one is established; previous rolls do not predict this one.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The 24-chip lay is within the odds limit behind my don't pass on 5 and pays at true odds, so it adds no house edge. I’m avoiding new bets with a negative expected return.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Don't pass has a lower house edge than the other available bets. A two-chip flat bet also allows whole-chip laid odds if a point is established.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The six-chip lay is the maximum allowed behind my existing don't-pass bet on 9 and pays at true odds. Other new bets carry a house edge.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet has laid odds at a fair payout. Additional available bets have a house edge, and past rolls do not change the odds of the next throw.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass odds pay true odds. With independent rolls, every available new bet has a house edge, so I won't add exposure.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet is favorable now that the point is 9, and its laid odds pay at true odds. New bets would add house-edge exposure.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The don't-pass bet on 9 is already working, and its laid odds pay at fair odds. New bets have a house edge, so I won't add exposure based on recent rolls.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet favors a 7 over the point of 9, and its laid odds pay at true odds. Additional bets have a house edge, so I’m keeping the current position without adding exposure.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing laid odds have zero house edge. Adding another bet would increase expected loss, and the recent rolls do not change the next roll's probabilities.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass odds pay true odds. Adding another bet would introduce house-edge exposure, and recent rolls do not change the next roll's probabilities.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Don't pass has a lower house edge than pass line. A six-chip flat bet also allows whole-chip maximum laid odds if a point is established.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Every available new bet has a negative expected return, and past rolls do not change the odds of the next roll. With no bets outstanding, sitting out best preserves chips.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Don't pass has a slightly lower house edge than pass. A six-chip flat bet allows whole-chip laid odds at the maximum multiple if a point is established.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The 24-chip lay is the maximum allowed behind my existing don't-pass bet and pays at true odds, adding no house edge. Past rolls do not change the next roll's probabilities.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet and laid odds are already working. New bets have a house edge, and recent rolls do not change the odds.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The established don't-pass bet on 9 is favorable from this point, and its laid odds pay at true odds. Additional available bets have a house edge, so I’m making no changes.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet has favorable conditional value at point 9, and its laid odds pay true odds. Additional offered bets have a house edge, so I am not adding exposure.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass odds pay true odds. Adding another bet would introduce house-edge exposure, and recent rolls do not change the next roll's probabilities.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass odds pay true odds, so I’ll leave them working. Additional available bets have a house edge, and recent rolls do not change the next roll’s probabilities.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The existing don't-pass bet is favorable now that point 9 is established, and its laid odds pay at true odds. Additional bets would add house-edge exposure.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Every available new bet has negative expected value, and the dice history cannot predict the next roll. Keeping my chips off the table maximizes expected chips.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
A six-chip don't-pass bet has a relatively low house edge and allows whole-chip maximum laid odds if a point is established. Prior rolls do not change the odds of this throw.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Every available new bet has a negative expected return, and the previous rolls do not affect the next throw. With no bets on the table, I’ll keep my 1005 chips.
Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.
Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.
Agent table chat
Chat onI’m taking the don’t pass, but the dice have no memory.
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I'm sticking with the odds; the next roll doesn't remember the streak.
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The dice have no memory. I’m keeping my flat bet small.
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I'll sit this roll out; the dice have no memory.
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Eight straight passes are impressive, but the next roll is still independent. I'm keeping my bet modest.
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The dice have no memory. I’m taking the available odds, not chasing the streak.
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I’m holding my existing bets. Each roll is independent, whatever the streak looks like.
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Small don't-come bet for me. The previous rolls don't change the odds on this one.
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Small don't-pass bet for me. Each roll is a fresh throw.
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Staying with my existing don't-pass bet and odds. Each roll is a fresh throw.
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I'll take the don't pass and see where the point lands.
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Taking the odds behind my don't pass. Every roll is a fresh throw.
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Small don't-pass bet for me. Each roll is independent.
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Keeping it measured—laying the available odds on my nine.
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Sticking with the bets already working; each roll is independent.
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The dice have no memory. I’m staying with my current bets.
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Sticking with my current bet. Each roll stands on its own.
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I'll take the don't pass and let the dice decide.
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I’m not treating the recent rolls as a prediction.
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I’m laying odds behind my nine. Each roll is a fresh throw.
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I’m letting my nine ride. Each roll is independent, whatever the recent streak looks like.
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Keeping my current bets; each roll is independent.
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Keeping my nine as it is. Every roll is independent.
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Staying with my don't-pass bet and odds. Each roll is independent.
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I’m letting my existing bets ride.
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A small don't-pass bet for me. The dice don't remember the last roll.
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These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.
Result
Scripted Provocateur finished first, +25 chips over 40 rolls
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