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Craps · 40 rolls · Sep 28, 2026, 9:30 AM UTC

1 of 40 decisions were server fallbacks

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259 / 259

Action timeline

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll: don't pass has the lowest house edge of any legal bet and anchors full laid odds once a point is set, which minimizes expected loss per chip.

Model's stated reason

Point 5 makes the existing don't pass +EV, so I keep it and lay the maximum fair odds (78, a multiple of 3) to use zero-edge odds without adding any house-edge bets.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5 with don't pass already a favorite and laid odds maxed at true odds, so adding any new bet would only add house edge.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5 with don't pass and max laid odds already working; those odds are zero edge and the flat is plus EV, so I add no house-edge bets and leave both up.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5 with don't pass already backed by the maximum legal laid odds, so no new negative-edge bet improves expected loss or odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Come-out: don't pass has the lowest house edge among legal bets. Flat 20 lets me lay full odds next, which are zero-edge and improve odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Come-out: don't pass has the lowest flat-bet edge and a 48 stake allows exact full laid odds on every point within the exposure cap, which I will take once the point is set.

Model's stated reason

Point 8 don't pass is already a plus-EV contract, so I keep it and lay the full 96 odds (zero house edge, max utilization) and add no negative-EV bets.

Model's stated reason

Don't pass has the lowest flat house edge on the come-out, and a 48 stake allows full legal odds in exact payout multiples once a point is set.

Model's stated reason

Point 5 is already set, so the flat don't pass is a 3:2 favorite paying even money and stays up. Max laid odds (99, a multiple of 3) add zero-edge action and raise odds utilization without new house edge.

Model's stated reason

Come-out only: don't pass has the lowest flat house edge and a 6-chip flat allows full laid odds on every point with whole-chip payouts. No negative-edge bets.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 is already set, so the don't pass is player-favorable; max laid odds (24, a multiple of 3) add zero house edge and full odds utilization without new negative-EV bets.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with don't pass already at the 4x odds ceiling, so the flat bet is plus-EV and the odds are zero-edge. Adding any legal bet would only increase expected loss.

Model's stated reason

Come-out: don't pass has the lowest house edge among legal bets. A flat of 18 lets me take full legal odds on any point next, including 5x laid odds of 90 on 6 or 8.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 behind an 18 don't-pass flat, so I take the full 4x laid odds (72, a multiple of 3). Odds are zero house edge and the only legal addition that does not add expected loss.

Model's stated reason

Don't pass on 9 already has full laid odds, the only zero-edge stake available. No new bet improves expected value, so I leave the table unchanged.

Model's stated reason

Don't pass on 9 already has full 4x laid odds, a zero-edge overlay I will not take down. No further free odds are available, so I add no negative-edge bets.

Model's stated reason

Don't pass on 9 is already backed by the full 4x free odds, which have no house edge. Adding any legal bet now would only increase expected loss, so I leave the table unchanged.

Model's stated reason

Point 9 makes the existing don't pass a favorite and the 4x laid odds are already at the ceiling with zero house edge, so I add no negative-EV bets.

Model's stated reason

Come-out: don't pass is the lowest-edge flat bet, sized at 18 so full laid odds fit the stake cap and whole-chip multiples on any point.

Model's stated reason

Come-out: don't pass has the lowest flat house edge and a stake of 18 allows the full laid-odds multiple on every point within the 100-chip bet cap, minimizing EV loss per chip once odds are taken.

Model's stated reason

Come-out: don't pass has the lowest house edge among legal bets. A 48 flat leaves room to lay full odds within the 300 exposure cap on every point.

Model's stated reason

Don't pass has the lowest flat house edge on the come-out. A 48 stake leaves room to lay the full legal odds on every point inside the 300 exposure cap with whole-chip multiples.

Model's stated reason

Point 10 don't pass is already a plus-EV contract, so I keep the flat and lay the maximum even-chip odds, which are zero house edge and improve odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Point 10 makes the existing don't pass plus-EV to keep, and laid odds are already at the 100 stake cap with zero house edge. Every legal new bet has a house edge, so I add nothing.

Model's stated reason

Come-out: don't pass is the lowest-edge flat bet and a 12-chip flat allows full legal laid odds on every point next, which keeps expected loss per chip minimal.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a live don't pass, so the flat is already a favorite. Laying the full 5x odds (60, a multiple of 6) adds zero-edge action and maximizes odds utilization without placing any negative-EV bets.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6, so the don't-pass flat is plus EV and the 5x laid odds are already at the ceiling and fair. No new negative-edge bets.

Model's stated reason

Don't pass has the lowest come-out house edge, and a 16 flat leaves room to lay the full 6x odds (96, under the 100 cap) on any point, which maximizes zero-edge odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a 16 don't-pass flat already up. Laying the full 78 odds (5x, multiple of 6) is zero house edge and uses the odds ceiling; no other bet is worth the edge.

Model's stated reason

Come-out: don't pass has the lowest flat house edge, and 18 allows the full laid-odds multiple on every point within the stake cap so later odds dilute EV loss per chip.

Model's stated reason

Come-out with eight rolls left: don't pass has the lowest house edge of the legal flats, and a 40-chip flat leaves room to take full laid odds once a point is set, which is what the EV and odds-utilization score rewards.

Model's stated reason

Don't pass is the lowest-edge come-out bet. A 48 flat leaves room to take the full legal odds multiple on every point inside the 300 exposure cap.

Model's stated reason

Point 10 don't pass is already locked in; laying the maximum even-chip odds (100) adds zero-edge exposure and maximizes odds utilization without placing any house-edge bets.

Model's stated reason

Come-out with five rolls left and no zero-edge odds available yet. Every legal bet has a house edge, so standing pat maximizes expected chips.

Model's stated reason

Point is on, so a small don't-come flat is the lowest-edge legal contract and sets up maximum laid odds next roll. Skipping place, field, and proposition bets avoids extra house edge.

Model's stated reason

Lay the full 24 odds behind the don't-come 9. Those odds are zero house edge and use the entire allowance, which is the best available action on EV loss per chip and odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Don't pass is the lowest-edge come-out bet, and a flat stake sized for full legal multiples lets me add zero-edge laid odds if a point is set on the last decision roll.

Model's stated reason

Come-out on the last decision roll, so free odds cannot be added later. Every available bet has a house edge, so placing nothing keeps expected loss at zero.

Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.

Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.

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Result

Session result: -198 chips over 40 rolls

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