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Craps · 40 rolls · Oct 14, 2026, 8:51 AM UTC

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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

Betting the minimum on Don't Pass, the lowest house edge flat bet, to preserve chips and allow max odds later.

Model's stated reason

Add maximum laid odds behind the existing don't pass bet on point 9; odds carry no house edge and improve odds utilization without adding negative-EV action.

Model's stated reason

Placing multiple don't come flat bets to build a portfolio for free odds, minimizing house edge and maximizing odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Add maximum laid odds on the existing don't come point of 10, a zero-house-edge bet that improves odds utilization without adding negative expectation.

Model's stated reason

Adding a small don't come bet (24) leaves room to later add maximum odds (up to 5x) if it travels to a point, improving odds utilization while keeping the average house edge low.

Model's stated reason

All available new bets carry a negative house edge. The existing dont_pass and dont_come positions are already in favorable positive-EV territory at their points, so disturbing them would be counterproductive. Taking no new action minimizes expected loss per chip and preserves current odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Existing dont_pass and dont_come positions are favorable or zero-EV odds; no new bets offer positive expected value, so I avoid adding house-edge exposure.

Model's stated reason

Existing dont_pass and dont_come bets are favorable or fair given the points, and no new legal bet offers positive EV. Adding any flat bet without the ability to add odds would lower odds utilization and expected value, so the optimal action is to keep the current position unchanged.

Model's stated reason

Existing bets are favorably positioned (dont_pass on 9 and dont_come on 10 have positive conditional EV). No new bets offer positive EV, and odds cannot be added (max_odds_stake is 0). Thus, no action maximizes decision quality and preserves current advantage.

Model's stated reason

Don't pass has the lowest house edge among available flat bets (1.36%) and can be backed with zero-edge laid odds once a point is established, maximizing odds utilization while minimizing expected loss per chip.

Model's stated reason

Add maximum laid odds behind the existing don't pass bet on point 6 to improve odds utilization without additional house edge.

Model's stated reason

Placing the minimum don't pass bet, which has the lowest house edge among available bets, to enable free odds later while minimizing expected loss.

Model's stated reason

Add laid odds behind my don't pass bet on point 9. Odds carry zero house edge and improve odds utilization without adding expected loss.

Model's stated reason

The existing don't pass flat bet is already on a favorable point 9, and its laid odds are at the maximum whole-chip multiple. Adding any other available bet would only increase negative expected value, so I keep the table unchanged.

Model's stated reason

Keep the existing don't pass and laid odds on point 9; the flat bet has positive conditional value and the odds are fair. Adding any new bet now would carry a negative house edge and lower odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Bet don't pass for the lowest house edge on the come-out; if a point is established, I plan to add laid odds to improve odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Add maximum laid odds behind my don't pass bet on 8; odds carry zero house edge and improve odds utilization without adding negative EV.

Model's stated reason

Bet 50 on don't pass to minimize house edge and allow maximum odds later within the 300 exposure cap.

Model's stated reason

Add maximum laid odds behind the existing don't pass bet on point 9; odds carry no house edge and improve odds utilization without increasing expected loss per chip.

Model's stated reason

No new bets: all available bets have negative expected value, and the existing don't pass with odds is already placed. Keeping the current position maximizes expected chips.

Model's stated reason

Existing don't pass with laid odds on 9 is already the lowest-house-edge position available; adding any other bet would increase expected loss per chip without improving odds utilization, so no new bets.

Model's stated reason

Don't pass has the lowest house edge among available come-out bets (1.36%). Betting the minimum flat allows maximum odds later, minimizing EV loss per chip and maximizing odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Minimum pass line bet keeps the house edge exposure tiny while establishing a point; I will then add maximum free odds to achieve full odds utilization and dilute the expected loss per chip.

Model's stated reason

Betting the don't pass line has the lowest house edge among available flat bets (1.36%), and a 50-chip stake allows taking full odds (up to 5x on 6/8) within the 300-chip exposure limit, maximizing odds utilization while minimizing expected loss per chip.

Model's stated reason

Place the minimum don't pass bet that allows maximum free odds on all possible points, minimizing house edge per chip while keeping expected loss small.

Model's stated reason

Add maximum laid odds behind the existing don't pass bet on point 5. These odds carry zero house edge and improve odds utilization without adding a negative-EV flat bet.

Model's stated reason

No new bets. The existing don't pass and laid odds on point 5 are already at maximum odds and have favorable conditional value; adding any other bet would only increase negative expected value.

Model's stated reason

No new bets are positive EV; existing don't pass and laid odds on point 5 are already at maximum odds and favorable, so I keep them and add nothing.

Model's stated reason

Keep the existing don't pass and max laid odds on point 5; no new bets offer positive expected value, and the current bets are already positioned favorably.

Model's stated reason

Place the minimum don't pass bet (6) that allows maximum free odds on any point with whole-chip payouts, minimizing house edge and maximizing odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Add maximum laid odds behind the existing don't pass bet on point 4; odds carry zero house edge and improve odds utilization without increasing expected loss. Keep the flat don't pass bet because it has positive conditional EV with point 4.

Model's stated reason

Don't pass has the lowest house edge among available flat bets (1.36%) and sets up zero-edge laid odds if a point is established, maximizing odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Betting the pass line with a 50-chip flat stake to allow maximum free odds (up to 5x) if a point is established, minimizing house edge and maximizing odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 and I have a pass line bet, so I take the maximum free odds (100 chips) at true odds 6:5. This adds zero house edge and improves odds utilization without increasing expected loss.

Model's stated reason

Don't come has the lowest house edge among available bets (1.36%), so I maximize the additional stake on it to minimize expected loss per chip while staying within the total stake limit.

Model's stated reason

No positive-EV bets are available, and existing pass line odds cannot be increased. Adding any new flat bet would increase expected loss and reduce odds utilization, so I stand pat.

Model's stated reason

Don't come has the lowest house edge among available bets (1.36%) and no odds are available to add. Maxing it out minimizes expected loss per chip.

Model's stated reason

Adding laid odds on the don't come 8 is a zero-house-edge bet, improving odds utilization and lowering expected loss per chip. The 48-chip stake is the largest multiple of 6 allowed by the remaining 50-chip exposure.

Model's stated reason

Minimum don't pass keeps flat-bet house-edge exposure tiny, and if a point is established I can add zero-edge laid odds on the final decision roll to improve odds utilization.

Model's stated reason

No point is on, so free odds cannot be utilized, and all available bets carry a negative expected value; the optimal chip-maximizing action is to place no new bets.

Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.

Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.

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Result

Session result: -100 chips over 40 rolls

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