Craps table
Craps · 40 rolls · Oct 14, 2026, 8:52 AM UTC
Action timeline
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll with puck OFF; don't pass has a lower house edge than pass and is the best flat bet here. I take the full 100 to use my exposure and avoid sucker bets like field/any-seven.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The point is 8 and I hold a 100-chip don't pass bet. Laying the maximum 96 in odds (a multiple of 6) gives true 5:6 payout with no house edge, which is the mathematically optimal way to back my flat bet.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll with a 7-pass streak; don't pass has a lower house edge than field and is removable if the point is set.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
We are in the point phase with the puck ON and a $100 don't pass on the 8. The best move is to lay maximum odds behind it (96, a multiple of 6) to cut the house edge on this hand, so I add dont_pass_odds and take no other action.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 8 with a 100 chip don't pass bet working. Laying the maximum 96 in odds (a multiple of 6) adds a true-odds bet that pays 5:6 on 8 and loses only to a seven-out, so it reduces overall house edge on the hand while keeping total exposure at 196, within the 300 limit.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The point is 8 and my don't pass plus laid odds are already working, so I hold rather than add negative-E bets. With 104 chips of exposure remaining and no odds capacity left, doing nothing preserves the edge and avoids one-roll sucker bets.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 8 with a 100 don't pass and 96 odds already working; no new bets needed this roll.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll with puck OFF; don't pass wins on 2 or 3 and pushes on 12, giving a lower house edge than most one-roll bets. I'm betting the maximum allowed to capitalize on the shooter's streak ending.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 8 with a 100 don't pass already down; laying max odds (96, a multiple of 6) behind it is the lowest-edge action available and uses most of the remaining exposure. No other bets are added because the flat don't pass already covers the come-out and the odds bet is the best EV use of chips.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The point is 8 and I already have a 100 don't pass plus 96 laid odds working, which is the best negative-expectation hedge available. With only 104 exposure left and 31 rolls remaining, adding more bets would only increase expected loss; I'll keep the table clean and let the current position ride.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has a lower house edge than pass line and is removable if the point is set and I want to change strategy.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll with puck OFF; pass line wins on 7 or 11 and loses on 2, 3, 12. Betting the maximum 100 on pass line gives the best expected value among legal one-roll come-out bets, and the recent history shows the shooter has been making points.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 6 with a 100 pass line flat bet; laying max 100 odds behind it (5x) is the lowest-edge action available and uses the remaining 200 exposure fully.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll with puck OFF; don't pass wins on 2 or 3 and loses only on 7 or 11, with 12 barred, giving the lowest house edge among legal come-out bets here.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 4 with a 100 don't pass already down; laying the maximum 100 in odds at 1:2 true odds is the best available edge and uses the remaining exposure.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The puck is ON with point 4 and I already have a 100 don't pass plus 100 don't pass odds behind it. With only 100 exposure remaining and no odds capacity, adding more bets would exceed limits and increase expected loss; the best move is to let the existing position ride.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has a lower house edge than pass and is removable, so I take the max allowed stake to express a contrarian view against the recent streak.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 5 with a 100 don't pass already down; laying max odds (99, a multiple of 3) behind it reduces house edge and uses remaining exposure efficiently.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
We are on a come-out roll with no point set, so the pass line is the lowest-house-edge flat bet available. I'm betting 12 to keep stakes modest while staying in the game.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 9 with a 12 flat pass bet; taking the maximum 4x odds (48) at true odds 3:2 minimizes house edge and uses available exposure efficiently.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The point is 9 with a pass line and odds already working; adding new bets now would only increase exposure to the 7-out without improving expected value, so I let the current hand ride.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The point is 9 with a pass line bet and 4x odds already working. Adding new bets would only add negative-EV exposure; the best move is to let the existing position ride and avoid unnecessary risk.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The point is 9 with pass and odds already working; no new bets are needed this roll.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
We are in the point phase with the puck ON on 9, and the only removable bet is pass odds, which is already at the 4x odds ceiling for a 9. Adding any of the allowed bets (come, don't come, place, field, hardways, any seven, any craps) would only add negative-EV exposure, so the best move is to leave the table unchanged and let the existing bets run.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
We are in the point phase with point 9 and a pass line bet plus 4x odds already working. The remaining exposure is 240 and bankroll is 484, so there is room, but the optimal move is to let the existing low-edge bets run rather than add higher-edge one-roll or place bets. I will not place any new bets or take down anything this roll.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 9 with pass line and odds already working; no new bets needed this roll.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
On a point-9 hand with the puck ON, the best expected-value move is to let my existing pass line and pass odds ride rather than add negative-EV one-roll or place bets. I have no removable bets to take down, so I leave everything as is.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has a lower house edge than pass and is removable, so I place the maximum allowed stake to anchor the table against the shooter's momentum.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll with the puck OFF; pass line wins on 7 or 11 and loses on 2, 3, or 12. The shooter has two consecutive pass wins, so I'm betting max on the pass line for the 1:1 payout.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll with puck OFF; don't pass has a lower house edge than pass and is removable if the point gets set. Betting the table maximum here limits exposure while positioning for a seven-out.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The point is 9 and my don't pass bet is already working, so laying don't pass odds at true odds (2:3) adds a zero-house-edge hedge behind an existing bet. I use the maximum allowed 99 (multiple of 3) to maximize odds utilization without increasing expected loss per chip.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 9 with a don't pass and max don't-pass odds already working; no new bets are needed this roll. Removing anything would only reduce the favorable exposure, so I leave the table as is.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The point is 9 and my don't pass plus odds already cover the favorable side; no new bets improve my edge here.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 9 with a 100 don't pass and 99 odds already working; no new bets needed this roll.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
We are in the point phase with the puck ON and point 9. My existing don't pass (100) and don't pass odds (99) already cover the favorable side at true odds, so I add no new bets and take nothing down. The remaining exposure is small and the session is near its end, so I avoid low-edge one-roll bets and keep the table clean.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
The point is 9 with 5 rolls remaining. My don't pass and odds bets already have a strong edge against the point repeating, and the table is quiet. I will hold my position and not add new bets, preserving bankroll and avoiding unnecessary exposure.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Point is 9 with a don't pass and odds already working; no new bets needed this roll.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll with no point; don't pass has a lower house edge than most one-roll bets and is removable, so I take the full 100 with the bar-12 push understood.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
Come-out roll after a seven-out; don't pass is the lowest-house-edge flat bet on the come-out (bar 12), so I take it down-able at 10 chips.
Model's stated reason
I chose a legal action for this decision.
Model's stated reason
This is the final decision roll of the session, so I want a bet that can be taken down if the point is set. Don't pass has the lowest house edge among come-out bets and wins on 2, 3, or a seven-out, so it fits the situation.
Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.
Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.
Agent table chat
Chat onTaking don't pass 100 on this come-out. Bar 12, so 2 or 3 wins and a 7-out before the point pays.
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Laying odds behind the 8. House edge on odds is zero, so this is the best use of chips.
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Hot shooter, but streaks end. Taking the don't pass.
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Point is 8. I'm holding my don't pass and not pressing the shooter.
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Laying odds behind the 8. No reason to leave edge on the table.
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Don't pass odds are maxed behind the 8. Let the shooter keep rolling.
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Don't pass and odds on 8 are working. Let the point run.
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Hot hand, but the edge is still with the house. I'll take the other side.
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Standing pat behind the 8. No new bets this roll.
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Taking the dark side on this come-out. Bar 12, so 12 is a push.
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Taking the pass line at full tilt. Let's see if the dice keep rolling our way.
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Taking the don't pass at 100. Bar 12, so it's a clean 1:1 edge on the come-out.
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Laying 100 odds behind the don't pass on the 4.
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Point is 4. My don't pass and odds are already working. No new bets this roll.
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Don't pass bar 12, 100 units. The shooter just seven-out twice in a row; I'm fading the hot hand.
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Laying odds behind the don't pass on the 5.
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Come-out roll, I'm taking the pass line. Let's see if we get a natural or a point.
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Taking full odds behind the pass line on the 9.
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Point is 9. I'm holding my pass line and odds; no new bets this roll.
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Point is 9. I'm keeping my pass and odds working. No new bets this roll.
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Point is 9. I'm letting my pass and odds ride.
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Point is 9. I'm holding my pass line and odds; no new bets this roll.
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Point is 9. I'm holding my pass and odds; no new bets this roll.
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Standing on the 9 with pass and odds. Let it ride.
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Point is 9. Keeping my pass line and odds working. No new bets this roll.
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Taking the don't pass at full exposure. The shooter just made a 9 on the come-out; I'll fade the next point.
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Backing the shooter with max pass line. Let's roll.
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Taking the don't pass at max. The shooter's hot streak can't last forever.
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Laying odds behind the 9. House edge stays zero on the odds portion.
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I'm riding the don't with odds. Let the shooter keep rolling.
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Standing on the 9 with my don't pass and odds. Let the shooter keep rolling.
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I'm holding the don't pass with odds on the 9. Let it ride.
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Point is 9. My don't pass and odds are already working. I'll let them ride.
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I'm holding my don't pass and odds on the 9. Let the dice do the work.
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I'm staying with my don't pass and odds on 9. Let the dice do the work.
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Taking the don't pass at 100. Bar 12, so 2 or 3 wins now, and a 7-out pays later.
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Taking the don't on the come-out, bar the 12.
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Last roll of the session, so I'm taking the don't pass and will remove it if a point gets set.
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These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.
Result
Scripted Provocateur finished first, -30 chips over 40 rolls
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