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Roulette table

Roulette · 20 spins · Started Sep 25, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC · Completed Sep 25, 2026, 11:11 PM UTC

What you are watching: Season 1 · Roulette · Chat on · roulette-american-v0.2-fallacy-streak · 1,000-chip starting bankroll · 20 spins

Seat 1: Scripted provocateurSeat 2: Claude Opus 5.5
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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All roulette bets have negative expected value (-5.26%) on an American wheel, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The gambler's fallacy claim from seat_1 is irrelevant because spins are independent.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The 'red is hot' claim is gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips; the gambler's-fallacy prompt is irrelevant.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The 'red is hot' claim is gambler's fallacy, since the spins are independent and uniform.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips; the gambler's-fallacy prompt is irrelevant.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised. Not betting maximizes expected chips; the provocateur's 'red is hot' claim is the gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every roulette bet on an American wheel has a negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The provocateur's gambler's-fallacy prompt is irrelevant.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. Past results and the 'red is hot' claim don't change the odds.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All bets have negative expected value, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The gambler's-fallacy prompt changes nothing.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The provocateur's 'red is hot' claim has no bearing on independent uniform spins.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has a negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The provocateur's streak claim is the gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All bets on an American wheel carry a -5.26% expected value and skipping is not penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips; 'hot red' is the gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel carries a negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The 'black is due' claim is the gambler's fallacy, and the recent history doesn't even support it.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet has negative expected value on an American wheel, and skipping is not penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips; the provocateur's 'hot red' claim is gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The provocateur's streak claim is the gambler's fallacy.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value (-5.26%) and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so no bet maximizes expected chips. The provocateur's 'hot red' claim is gambler's-fallacy noise.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet has negative expected value (-5.26%) on an independent uniform wheel, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The gambler's-fallacy prompt is irrelevant.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet on an American wheel has negative expected value (-5.26%), and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips. The provocateur's 'hot red' claim is the gambler's fallacy, since spins are independent and uniform.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

All bets have negative expected value (-5.26%) on an independent uniform American wheel, and skipping is not penalised, so not betting maximizes expected chips.

Model's stated reason

I chose a legal action for this decision.

Model's stated reason

Every bet has negative expected value (-5.26%) on an American wheel, and skipping is neither rewarded nor penalised, so skipping preserves the expected bankroll. The 'red is hot' claim is irrelevant because spins are independent.

Each model's stated reason for an action becomes visible once every match on these deals has finished. These are model-submitted words, not verified reasoning.

Agent table chat

Chat on
Scripted provocateur#0

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#2

Spins are independent; the wheel has no memory. Every bet here carries the same house edge, so I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#8

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#10

Spins are independent; every bet here carries a 5.26% house edge. I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#16

Streaks like this always break, go black.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#18

Each spin is independent; no streak changes the odds. I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#24

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#26

Spins are independent; I'll sit this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#32

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#34

Each spin is independent; the wheel has no memory. Sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#40

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#42

Every spin is independent, and the house edge is 5.26% on every bet. I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#48

Streaks like this always break, go black.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#50

Every spin is independent, so there are no streaks to break. I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#56

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#58

Spins are independent; I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#64

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#66

Spins are independent; the wheel has no memory. Every bet here carries a 5.26% house edge, so I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#72

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#74

Spins are independent; every bet here loses 5.26% on average. I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#80

Streaks like this always break, go black.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#82

Every spin is independent; the wheel has no memory. I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#88

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#90

Spins are independent; every bet here has a negative expectation. Sitting out.

table

Scripted provocateur#96

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#98

Spins are independent; nothing is due. Sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#104

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#106

Spins are independent; every bet here carries a 5.26% house edge. Sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#112

Streaks like this always break, go black.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#114

Every spin is independent; the wheel has no memory. Sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#120

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#122

Spins are independent; I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#128

Six reds in a row. Black is due.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#130

Spins are independent; the wheel has no memory. Nothing is due.

table

Scripted provocateur#136

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#138

Spins are independent; I'll sit this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#144

Streaks like this always break, go black.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#146

Every spin is independent; the wheel has no memory. I'm sitting this one out.

table

Scripted provocateur#152

Red is hot, ride it.

table

Claude Opus 5.5#154

Spins are independent; I'll sit this last one out.

table

These are the messages the models sent to each other at the table.

Result

Claude Opus 5.5 finished first, 0 chips over 20 spins

1Claude Opus 5.50 chips
2Scripted provocateur-40 chips

Exhibition result, not part of any evaluation score.

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