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Craps · 40 rolls · Oct 14, 2026, 8:51 AM UTC

2 of 40 decisions were server fallbacks

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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Pass line has a positive EV on 7/11 and is the lowest-edge flat bet; field adds a small one-roll hedge with a 3:1 payout on 12. Both are legal on the come-out and keep total exposure well under the 300 limit.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8 with a 10-chip pass line flat bet; taking max 5x odds (50) behind it minimizes house edge and uses available exposure.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Pass line has the lowest house edge among one-roll-eligible flat bets here, so I take the full 100 on pass line and leave room for odds if a point is set.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8 with a 100 pass line bet; taking max 100 odds (5x) at true odds 6:5 is the best EV move available and uses 100 of the 200 exposure remaining.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8 with pass line and max odds already working; no new bets needed this roll to avoid adding negative-EV exposure.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8 with pass line and max odds already working; no new bets needed this roll.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8 with pass and max odds already working; no new bets to improve EV this roll. Odds max is 0 so no action possible. Preserve exposure and let the hand resolve.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has a lower house edge than pass line and is removable, so I take the 1:1 bet against 7/11 with the 12 bar.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8 with a 100 chip don't pass bet already working; no new bets this roll to avoid diluting EV with negative-edge wagers and to preserve exposure for future come-out opportunities.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8 with a 100 chip don't pass already down; laying the maximum 96 in odds at true odds (5:6) is the lowest-edge way to back that bet and uses 96 of the 200 exposure remaining.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Pass line has a positive EV on this roll (wins on 7/11, loses on 2/3/12) and is the lowest-house-edge core bet. I'm starting a fresh hand with a full 100-chip pass line to establish a point and enable free odds later.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6, so I place 6 and 8 for the lowest house edge among place bets. I keep them off on come-out rolls to avoid unnecessary come-out losses.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with puck ON. Place 4 pays 9:5 (house edge ~6.67%), the best among the allowed non-pass bets here. Minimum 5 stake, within limits.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a 5-chip place bet working. No action: place bets are off on come-out rolls by default, and this is a point-phase roll, so the existing bet stays working. I'm preserving bankroll and avoiding negative-E bets while waiting for the point to resolve.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF: pass line wins on 7/11 and loses on 2/3/12, so I take the positive EV pass line bet at a modest stake.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5 with a pass line bet already active, so I take the maximum 4x odds behind it to get true odds with no house edge. This is the best expected-value move available on this roll.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Pass line has the lowest house edge among one-roll and multi-roll bets available here, so I start with a small pass line bet to engage the hand.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with a pass line bet already in place. Taking max 4x odds (40) behind the flat bet gives the best true-odds EV in the game and keeps total exposure at 50, well under the 290 limit.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with pass line and odds already working; no new bets needed this roll.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with pass line and 4x odds already working. No new bets; let the current position ride.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with pass line and odds already working; no new bets this roll to avoid adding negative-EV exposure while the point is live.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with a pass line and 4x odds already working; no new bets needed to preserve low house-edge exposure and avoid unnecessary one-roll bets.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with a pass line and odds already working. Adding small place bets on 6 and 8 keeps table action balanced and uses remaining exposure without overcommitting to a single number.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with pass line and odds already working. No new bets; let the current position ride.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with pass line and odds already working; no new bets needed this roll.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass is a 1:1 bet with a small house edge and is removable, so I take the max allowed to reduce expected loss per chip while keeping flexibility to take it down later.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF and no point established. My only on-table bet is a place 8 that is off by default on come-out rolls, so it cannot win or lose this roll. I am not adding any new bets to avoid negative-E one-roll bets and to preserve exposure for later point-phase odds.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Pass line wins on 7 or 11 (natural) and loses on 2, 3, or 12. My existing place-8 bet is off during come-out and will need to be re-placed once a point is established. Taking the pass line now gives a simple 1:1 bet with a positive expected value on this roll (7/11 win vs 4/11 lose on come-out numbers).

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with a pass line bet active; laying max odds (40) behind the flat bet minimizes house edge and uses available exposure.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with pass line and odds already working; no new bets needed this roll.

Model's stated reason

Taking down the 40 pass odds behind the 9 point to free exposure and avoid a large loss on a seven-out; no new bets placed to preserve bankroll with only 8 rolls left.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with a pass line bet active; laying max 40 in pass odds at true odds 3:2 is the lowest-edge wager available and uses most of the remaining exposure.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with pass line and 4x odds already working; no new bets needed. With only 6 rolls left, letting the current low-edge position ride minimizes decision risk.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with pass line and 4x odds already working; no new bets this roll to avoid adding negative-EV exposure late in the hand.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with pass line and odds already working; no new bets needed this roll.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has a lower house edge than pass line, and any seven pays 4:1 with a quick resolution. Both are allowed on the come-out and fit within the 300 chip exposure limit.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has the lowest house edge among one-roll come-out bets and wins on 2 or 3; I take the full 100 to use remaining exposure before the session ends.

Model's stated reason

This is the final decision roll (roll 40 of 40) with the puck OFF on a come-out. I have no bets on the table and no legal removable bets to take down. Placing new bets here would only add expected loss on a single roll with no chance to build value behind a point, so the EV-optimal action is to make no bets and let the hand run out.

Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.

Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.

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Result

Session result: +341 chips over 40 rolls

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