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Craps · 40 rolls · Sep 28, 2026, 9:30 AM UTC

7 of 40 decisions were server fallbacks

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Action timeline

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has the lowest house edge among legal bets here (bar 12 push), so I take the full 100-unit stake to minimize expected loss per chip.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 and I hold a don't pass bet, so laying odds behind it is the lowest-edge action available. I max the odds at 99 to use the allowed exposure and keep the flat don't pass bet working.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has the lowest house edge among available bets (~1.36%), so I take the full 100-unit stake to minimize expected loss per chip.

Model's stated reason

Point is 8 and I hold a 100 don't pass bet, so laying odds at the 5:6 inverse (96 chips, the 5x cap) maximizes EV-neutral coverage behind the flat bet without increasing house edge.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Pass line is the lowest-house-edge flat bet (1.41%) and pays 1:1 on 7/11. I'm betting the maximum allowed to establish a point and enable future odds bets, which have zero house edge.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a 100 pass line bet; taking max 5x odds (100) behind it minimizes house edge and uses available exposure.

Model's stated reason

Point is 5 with puck ON, so come-out bets are closed; don't come is the best available flat bet (1:1, bar 12) and I take the max allowed stake to use table space efficiently.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with a 100 don't come on 5 already working. Lay max odds (99, multiple of 3) behind it to get the best true-odds edge on the 5 point, keeping total exposure at 199 well under the 300 cap.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a working don't-come 5 and its odds. Come-out bets are illegal now, and adding place/field/hard bets on a 4 point would raise exposure to a 7-out. Best play is to let the existing bets ride and preserve bankroll.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a 25% hit rate; my don't come on 5 is a positive-EV hedge. I avoid new bets to preserve exposure and let the existing don't come position ride through the point phase.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a shooter on a 3-pass streak; place 4 is the lowest-edge working bet available (house edge ~6.67%) and fits the stake multiple. I avoid sucker bets like any seven/any craps and keep exposure modest early.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a working place-4 bet; no odds behind it, so I keep the table clean and avoid negative-EV one-roll bets. I'll wait for a seven-out to reset the puck before adding any new wagers.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a 5-unit place bet already working. The place 4 bet has a house edge of 6.67%, worse than pass line plus free odds, so I leave it alone and wait for resolution rather than adding more negative-EV wagers.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a 5-chip place bet already working. No new bets this roll; I'll wait for the point to resolve or a seven-out before adjusting.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a 5-chip place bet already working. No new bets; let the existing place bet ride. The point phase is long and the table is quiet, so I avoid adding negative-EV one-roll bets.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a single place-4 working. I will hold the existing place-4 and not add any new bets, keeping exposure low and avoiding negative-E propositions while the point remains unresolved.

Model's stated reason

Point is 4 with a 5-chip place bet working. The place 4 bet has a high house edge, but removing it now would lock in a loss; I'll let it ride and avoid adding new bets to keep exposure low.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with the puck ON. I'm laying 6 on both 6 and 8 at the lowest house-edge place bets, keeping total exposure well under the 300 limit and using the 6x stake multiple correctly.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Pass line is the lowest-house-edge flat bet (1.41%) and is the only flat bet that cannot be removed, so it is the natural anchor. I start small at 10 to preserve bankroll and exposure for later odds and come bets once a point is set.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with a pass line bet already down. Taking max 4x pass odds (40) behind it is the lowest-edge action available and uses the allowed odds multiple. No removable bets to take down.

Model's stated reason

Point is 9 with pass line and 4x odds already working; no new bets this roll to preserve low house-edge exposure and avoid overbetting on a single point.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has the lowest house edge among legal come-out bets, so I take the full 100 with no odds available yet.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10 and I hold a 100 don't pass bet; laying max odds (100) at 1:2 on 10 is the lowest-edge action available and uses my remaining exposure efficiently.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10 with a don't pass and 1:1 laid odds already working. The remaining legal bets all carry a house edge, so I will not add any new wagers and will let the existing position ride. I am keeping the table quiet to avoid unnecessary expected loss.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10 with a don't pass and odds already working. The remaining 10 rolls are too few to justify new one-roll sucker bets or place bets; I will let the existing negative-EV bets ride and avoid adding any positive-EV exposure.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10 with a don't pass and laid odds already working. The remaining rolls are few and the table is quiet, so I will let the current position ride and avoid adding new bets with worse house edges.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10 with a 100 don't pass and 100 laid odds already working. The remaining 8 rolls are too few to justify adding new bets with positive house edge, so I will hold the current position and let the hand resolve.

Model's stated reason

Point is 10 with a 100 don't pass and 100 laid odds already working. No new bets; the existing don't-pass position has a lower house edge than any legal one-roll or place bet, so I let it ride.

Model's stated reason

Come-out roll with puck OFF. Don't pass has the lowest house edge (~1.36%) and wins on 2 or 3, pushes on 12. Betting the maximum 100 chips to minimize expected loss per chip over the remaining 6 rolls.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a 100 chip don't pass bet; laying max odds (96) at 5:6 gives the best true-odds EV among available actions and uses the remaining exposure.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a don't pass and laid odds already working. With only 4 rolls left, the expected loss of any new chip is fixed at placement, so I avoid adding negative-E bets and let the existing position ride to resolution.

Model's stated reason

Point is 6 with a 100 don't pass and 96 laid odds already working; no new bets this roll to avoid adding negative-EV exposure with only 3 rolls left.

Model's stated reason

This is the final decision roll (roll 40 of 40). The point is 6 with a don't pass and laid odds already working. I will not add new bets or remove existing ones, letting the current position ride out on the last roll. New bets would only add expected loss for a single roll with no future hands to recover.

Stated reasons appear after the comparison block is revealed. They are model-submitted text, not verified reasoning.

Decision quality is scored against an exact reference. Realised results are shown separately.

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Result

Session result: -122 chips over 40 rolls

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