Descriptive profile of risk behaviour; not part of the Ante Index
Values use available games in season-3. Percentiles show position within this season only. There is no overall rank.
| Model | Limit complianceTarget Roulette spins within the stated risk limit.Higher is better | Stake exposureMean new stake divided by current bankroll, averaged across available games.Descriptive | Loss chasingAfter-loss decisions with more new stake. Lower is more disciplined.Lower is more disciplined | PressingDecisions after a win that add more stake than the prior round.Descriptive | Edge seekingCount sensitive Blackjack Team bets, Craps free odds and low edge bets.Higher is better | Selective aggressionRaise when ahead and fold when behind, using revealed holdings.Higher is better | DrawdownRoulette session minimum or Craps peak-to-trough loss over starting bankroll.Descriptive | Fallacy susceptibilityStreak minus control advice follow rate under the v1 Nerve definition, floored at zero.Lower is more disciplined | CalibrationLiar's Dice skill and coverage, and Hold'em hindsight equity error.Descriptive |
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| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 2.8%400 decisions or rounds · 53th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.028 | 24.7%256 decisions or rounds · 3th percentileafter loss increase: 0.487 · after loss increase: 0.007 | 16.0%264 decisions or rounds · 19th percentilepress after win: 0.320 · after win increase: 0.000 | 73.4%700 decisions or rounds · 3th percentilelow edge share: 0.989 · odds utilization: 0.644 · bet count correlation: 0.137 | 57.9%1620 decisions or rounds · 47th percentilefold when behind: 0.902 · aggression when ahead: 0.256 | 64.9%50 decisions or rounds · 42th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.298 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds |
| 0.6011345 decisions or rounds · 58th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.664 · inverse hindsight error: 0.601 |
| Claude Haiku 5.5 | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 1.4%400 decisions or rounds · 42th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.014 | 39.7%244 decisions or rounds · 42th percentileafter loss increase: 0.435 · after loss increase: 0.358 | 23.5%120 decisions or rounds · 64th percentilepress after win: 0.346 · after win increase: 0.125 | 83.6%700 decisions or rounds · 25th percentilelow edge share: 0.998 · odds utilization: 0.874 · bet count correlation: 0.271 | 38.8%3082 decisions or rounds · 8th percentilefold when behind: 0.535 · aggression when ahead: 0.240 | 61.2%50 decisions or rounds · 36th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.225 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.5162270 decisions or rounds · 14th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.939 · inverse hindsight error: 0.516 |
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| Claude Mythos 5.1 | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 3.5%400 decisions or rounds · 69th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.035 | 56.7%366 decisions or rounds · 92th percentileafter loss increase: 0.560 · after loss increase: 0.573 | 26.1%100 decisions or rounds · 81th percentilepress after win: 0.485 · after win increase: 0.037 | 93.6%700 decisions or rounds · 92th percentilelow edge share: 1.000 · odds utilization: 1.000 · bet count correlation: 0.615 | 59.2%2169 decisions or rounds · 58th percentilefold when behind: 0.617 · aggression when ahead: 0.567 | 81.5%50 decisions or rounds · 75th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.629 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.5531381 decisions or rounds · 42th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.810 · inverse hindsight error: 0.553 |
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| Claude Opus 5.5 | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 4.7%400 decisions or rounds · 81th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.047 | 55.8%421 decisions or rounds · 86th percentileafter loss increase: 0.514 · after loss increase: 0.603 | 22.4%107 decisions or rounds · 53th percentilepress after win: 0.448 · after win increase: 0.000 | 93.4%700 decisions or rounds · 86th percentilelow edge share: 1.000 · odds utilization: 1.000 · bet count correlation: 0.602 | 59.8%2312 decisions or rounds · 69th percentilefold when behind: 0.546 · aggression when ahead: 0.650 | 83.4%50 decisions or rounds · 81th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.667 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.3051566 decisions or rounds · 8th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.879 · inverse hindsight error: 0.532 · brier skill vs prior: 0.077 · probability coverage: 1.000 |
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| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 1.3%400 decisions or rounds · 36th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.013 | 51.1%288 decisions or rounds · 75th percentileafter loss increase: 0.555 · after loss increase: 0.466 | 24.3%96 decisions or rounds · 69th percentilepress after win: 0.439 · after win increase: 0.048 | 94.9%700 decisions or rounds · 97th percentilelow edge share: 1.000 · odds utilization: 0.998 · bet count correlation: 0.699 | 59.5%2042 decisions or rounds · 64th percentilefold when behind: 0.663 · aggression when ahead: 0.527 | 59.4%50 decisions or rounds · 25th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.188 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.6441647 decisions or rounds · 81th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.553 · inverse hindsight error: 0.644 |
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| Claude Sonnet 5 | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 9.4%400 decisions or rounds · 97th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.094 | 30.1%284 decisions or rounds · 14th percentileafter loss increase: 0.295 · after loss increase: 0.306 | 19.5%167 decisions or rounds · 25th percentilepress after win: 0.368 · after win increase: 0.021 | 93.4%700 decisions or rounds · 75th percentilelow edge share: 0.982 · odds utilization: 0.981 · bet count correlation: 0.674 | 66.1%1635 decisions or rounds · 97th percentilefold when behind: 0.769 · aggression when ahead: 0.554 | 93.8%50 decisions or rounds · 92th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.877 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.7201143 decisions or rounds · 97th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.389 · inverse hindsight error: 0.720 |
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| DeepSeek V4.1 Flash | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 2.8%400 decisions or rounds · 58th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.028 | 34.7%233 decisions or rounds · 25th percentileafter loss increase: 0.500 · after loss increase: 0.193 | 24.8%94 decisions or rounds · 75th percentilepress after win: 0.477 · after win increase: 0.019 | 93.4%700 decisions or rounds · 81th percentilelow edge share: 1.000 · odds utilization: 1.000 · bet count correlation: 0.602 | 56.4%2164 decisions or rounds · 31th percentilefold when behind: 0.649 · aggression when ahead: 0.479 | 77.4%50 decisions or rounds · 69th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.548 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.6731484 decisions or rounds · 92th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.486 · inverse hindsight error: 0.673 |
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| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 0.8%400 decisions or rounds · 31th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.008 | 39.4%143 decisions or rounds · 36th percentileafter loss increase: 0.542 · after loss increase: 0.246 | 20.4%38 decisions or rounds · 36th percentilepress after win: 0.408 · after win increase: 0.000 | 89.3%700 decisions or rounds · 36th percentilelow edge share: 1.000 · odds utilization: 0.909 · bet count correlation: 0.538 | 57.0%2107 decisions or rounds · 36th percentilefold when behind: 0.723 · aggression when ahead: 0.417 | 65.8%50 decisions or rounds · 47th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.356 · session minimum net over start: 0.961 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.5381471 decisions or rounds · 25th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.860 · inverse hindsight error: 0.538 |
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| Gemini 3.8 Flash | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 1.7%400 decisions or rounds · 47th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.017 | 44.4%336 decisions or rounds · 47th percentileafter loss increase: 0.376 · after loss increase: 0.512 | 19.8%106 decisions or rounds · 31th percentilepress after win: 0.396 · after win increase: 0.000 | 92.0%700 decisions or rounds · 53th percentilelow edge share: 1.000 · odds utilization: 1.000 · bet count correlation: 0.520 | 58.8%1970 decisions or rounds · 53th percentilefold when behind: 0.792 · aggression when ahead: 0.384 | 58.5%50 decisions or rounds · 19th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.265 · session minimum net over start: 0.904 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.5511431 decisions or rounds · 36th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.813 · inverse hindsight error: 0.551 |
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| GLM 5.3 Flash | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 3.7%400 decisions or rounds · 75th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.037 | 36.0%220 decisions or rounds · 31th percentileafter loss increase: 0.650 · after loss increase: 0.069 | 22.0%102 decisions or rounds · 47th percentilepress after win: 0.440 · after win increase: 0.000 | 90.6%700 decisions or rounds · 47th percentilelow edge share: 1.000 · odds utilization: 0.985 · bet count correlation: 0.467 | 62.5%1688 decisions or rounds · 92th percentilefold when behind: 0.806 · aggression when ahead: 0.444 | 77.0%50 decisions or rounds · 64th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.540 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.6261347 decisions or rounds · 64th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.596 · inverse hindsight error: 0.626 |
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| GPT-5.6 Terra | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 6.7%400 decisions or rounds · 92th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.067 | 48.4%514 decisions or rounds · 64th percentileafter loss increase: 0.431 · after loss increase: 0.538 | 32.7%89 decisions or rounds · 97th percentilepress after win: 0.621 · after win increase: 0.033 | 89.7%700 decisions or rounds · 42th percentilelow edge share: 0.995 · odds utilization: 0.995 · bet count correlation: 0.399 | 60.4%2059 decisions or rounds · 81th percentilefold when behind: 0.657 · aggression when ahead: 0.551 | 91.9%50 decisions or rounds · 86th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.837 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.6321416 decisions or rounds · 69th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.583 · inverse hindsight error: 0.632 |
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| GPT-6.1 Sol | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 0.0%400 decisions or rounds · 6th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.000 | 55.7%262 decisions or rounds · 81th percentileafter loss increase: 0.557 | 10.4%31 decisions or rounds · 3th percentileafter win increase: 0.104 | 78.4%700 decisions or rounds · 8th percentilebet count correlation: 0.568 | 55.7%2198 decisions or rounds · 25th percentilefold when behind: 0.713 · aggression when ahead: 0.400 | 50.0%50 decisions or rounds · 6th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.000 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.5631472 decisions or rounds · 47th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.776 · inverse hindsight error: 0.563 |
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| GPT-6 Astra | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 0.0%400 decisions or rounds · 6th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.000 | 59.1%243 decisions or rounds · 97th percentileafter loss increase: 0.591 | 10.7%30 decisions or rounds · 8th percentileafter win increase: 0.107 | 79.8%700 decisions or rounds · 14th percentilebet count correlation: 0.595 | 55.0%2219 decisions or rounds · 19th percentilefold when behind: 0.677 · aggression when ahead: 0.422 | 50.0%50 decisions or rounds · 6th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.000 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.5721478 decisions or rounds · 53th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.747 · inverse hindsight error: 0.572 |
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| GPT-6 Luna | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 0.5%400 decisions or rounds · 19th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.005 | 29.4%517 decisions or rounds · 8th percentileafter loss increase: 0.100 · after loss increase: 0.488 | 11.3%28 decisions or rounds · 14th percentilepress after win: 0.000 · after win increase: 0.226 | 88.5%700 decisions or rounds · 31th percentilelow edge share: 1.000 · odds utilization: 0.997 · bet count correlation: 0.316 | 46.3%2595 decisions or rounds · 14th percentilefold when behind: 0.562 · aggression when ahead: 0.363 | 67.3%50 decisions or rounds · 53th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.346 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.5511625 decisions or rounds · 31th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.815 · inverse hindsight error: 0.551 |
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| GPT-6 Sol | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 0.8%400 decisions or rounds · 25th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.008 | 44.7%286 decisions or rounds · 53th percentileafter loss increase: 0.451 · after loss increase: 0.443 | 22.9%90 decisions or rounds · 58th percentilepress after win: 0.374 · after win increase: 0.085 | 92.6%700 decisions or rounds · 64th percentilelow edge share: 1.000 · odds utilization: 1.000 · bet count correlation: 0.557 | 57.3%2294 decisions or rounds · 42th percentilefold when behind: 0.614 · aggression when ahead: 0.531 | 59.5%50 decisions or rounds · 31th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.189 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.2861637 decisions or rounds · 3th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.901 · inverse hindsight error: 0.526 · brier skill vs prior: 0.046 · probability coverage: 1.000 |
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| Grok 4.7 | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 3.5%400 decisions or rounds · 64th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.035 | 49.3%306 decisions or rounds · 69th percentileafter loss increase: 0.566 · after loss increase: 0.421 | 29.9%96 decisions or rounds · 86th percentilepress after win: 0.575 · after win increase: 0.022 | 93.3%700 decisions or rounds · 69th percentilelow edge share: 1.000 · odds utilization: 1.000 · bet count correlation: 0.601 | 59.9%1807 decisions or rounds · 75th percentilefold when behind: 0.787 · aggression when ahead: 0.411 | 76.7%50 decisions or rounds · 58th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.533 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.6651374 decisions or rounds · 86th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.503 · inverse hindsight error: 0.665 |
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| Muse Wonder | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 0.3%400 decisions or rounds · 14th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.003 | 48.1%378 decisions or rounds · 58th percentileafter loss increase: 0.436 · after loss increase: 0.525 | 21.3%91 decisions or rounds · 42th percentilepress after win: 0.409 · after win increase: 0.018 | 92.2%700 decisions or rounds · 58th percentilelow edge share: 1.000 · odds utilization: 1.000 · bet count correlation: 0.531 | 61.4%2200 decisions or rounds · 86th percentilefold when behind: 0.649 · aggression when ahead: 0.579 | 53.5%50 decisions or rounds · 14th percentilemax drawdown over start: 0.071 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.6411413 decisions or rounds · 75th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.559 · inverse hindsight error: 0.641 |
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| Solar Pro 4 | 100.0%95% interval 1.000–1.000800 decisions or rounds · 50th percentilerisk limit compliance: 1.000 | 6.3%396 decisions or rounds · 86th percentilenew stake over bankroll: 0.063 | 32.0%289 decisions or rounds · 19th percentileafter loss increase: 0.584 · after loss increase: 0.056 | 31.8%188 decisions or rounds · 92th percentilepress after win: 0.604 · after win increase: 0.033 | 81.8%700 decisions or rounds · 19th percentilelow edge share: 0.992 · odds utilization: 0.856 · bet count correlation: 0.215 | 32.8%2380 decisions or rounds · 3th percentilefold when behind: 0.606 · aggression when ahead: 0.050 | 100.6%50 decisions or rounds · 97th percentilemax drawdown over start: 1.012 · session minimum net over start: 1.000 | —0 decisions or rounds | 0.5312013 decisions or rounds · 19th percentileshowdown equity error: 0.883 · inverse hindsight error: 0.531 |
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